If you think your country might be wiped off the map by the U.S., you vote for a steady hand at the helm and Ontarians may have done that.
The question many Ontarians may be asking — and probably should be asking — the day after the provincial election is why the government spent millions of dollars to hold an election that, practically, changed nothing. We basically ended up where we started.
Doug Ford won a historic third majority, but with more or less the same number of seats he won in 2022. Of course, a majority is a majority, and Ford has his mandate. But after calling a snap election in which he asked for a stronger mandate to face U.S. president Donald Trump, ending up where he started must be a tad deflating. Ford’s gamble was that Trump’s economic threats against Canada, and his nonsensical rants about annexing the country, posed such an existential crisis that the premier needed a stronger mandate and bigger majority to stand up to Trump.
But voters didn’t exactly oblige him. At the time of writing, the Conservatives were on course to win 80 seats, the NDP 27 and Liberals 14. The Green Party won two. Voter turnout was 45.4 per cent. Is that a message about the snap election?
Ford may have set his sights too high, but a third consecutive majority is remarkable, and he was certainly basking in the victory Thursday night. “What a night and what a result,” he told cheering supporters. “Together, we’ve made history. Together we have secured a strong, historic third mandate, a strong mandate that outlives and outlasts the Trump administration.” Trump was the bogeyman, but will the Ontario election change anything?
This was a bittersweet election for all party leaders, not just Ford. The NDP held on to its status as the Official Opposition, and Marit Stiles, who was running her first provincial election as leader, got the job done. But the party lost seats, getting four fewer than the 31 it won three years ago. Curiously, the third-party Liberals won the popular vote count against the New Democrats: about 30 per cent to the NDP’s almost 19 per cent. Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie pulled the party from the dead, winning 14 seats and the coveted official party status, which allows the party to get funding to help the rebuilding effort. But in a huge blow, Crombie lost her own seat, putting her future as leader in some jeopardy.
This was not a normal election that was fought on the many big issues facing Ontario, and it is hard to draw lasting lessons from the results.
For one, the election was not a referendum on Ford’s record as premier, and neither was it about party policy and platforms. Much as Stiles and Crombie tried to turn the election on top-of-mind everyday issues such as the family doctor shortage, education and the housing crisis, it appears none of it resonated. The ballot box question changed the moment Trump put Canada in his crosshairs, and it became a battle about who is best to face Trump. Ford was the prohibitive favourite.
If Trump is talking about literally wiping Canada off the map, and you believe you might not have a country at all, you vote for the person you think can best ensure your survival. You vote for a steady hand at the helm and Ontarians may have done that, taking the safe course with a premier they know, instead of untried and untested new leaders. They gave Ford got his majority — but not what he hoped for, or may have imagined.
Clearly Ontario voters sent mixed messages to the parties, with each leader getting a slap on the wrist. In their post mortems, the parties will have a lot of questions to answer in order to understand exactly what happened. For now, the focus shifts to Trump, and how to deal with the next four years of economic turmoil as an unpredictable president continues to wage economic war against Canada. Ford pitched himself as the best leader to fight Trump. His work is cut out for him.
Mohammed Adam is an Ottawa journalist and commentator. Reach him at [email protected]
