As picket lines dwindle and support from Canada Post workers for their national strike fades, the Canadian Union of Postal Workers is playing a dangerous waiting game, labour relations experts say.
This week, the union met with public works minister Joël Lightbound hoping to convince him to roll back some of the restructuring he OK’d for the Crown corporation in late September, which included an end to home delivery and the shuttering of some rural post offices — a flashpoint for the strike.
It doesn’t appear to have worked.
CUPW didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on the results of their Wednesday night meeting.
But Lightbound’s spokesperson made it clear the government was still concerned about Canada Post’s growing sea of red ink.
“Canada Post is part of the fabric of our country — but it’s facing an existential crisis. Losing $10 million every day isn’t sustainable, and Canadians can’t keep paying that price,” said Laurent De Casanove. “We want to see Canada Post modernize and transform so it can keep serving Canadians for years to come.”
De Casanove urged both sides to come to a contract agreement to end 20 months of fruitless negotiations.
But an agreement at the negotiating table seems less and less likely, said McMaster University labour studies professor Stephanie Ross.
“The union doesn’t have a lot of good moves right now,” said Ross, “because every move brings certain kinds of peril with it.”
Staying on strike is creating dissent among union members who are concerned about lost wages. But ending the strike, at a time when Canada Post’s most recent contract offer included three major steps back from a final offer voted down in August, would also hurt union morale and cohesion, Ross said.
“The longer you stay out, the more wages you sacrifice, the better the deal you need to come back in. It has to have been worth it.”
Canada Post’s latest offer on Oct. 3 includes three major steps back from the Crown corporation’s “final” offer rejected by CUPW members in August: It removes a signing bonus, lays the groundwork for major layoffs, and targets almost 500 urban and suburban post offices for potential closure.
That contract was rejected by 69 per cent of members who voted in balloting ordered by federal jobs minister Patty Hajdu.
The restructuring subsequently given the go-ahead by Lightbound has likely pushed that support even lower, Ross argued.
“Unless something radical changes, which I don’t see how it does,” said Ross, “that 69 per cent is just going to keep eroding.”
CUPW leadership is focused on saving jobs that the government and Canada Post have already decided to cut, rather than trying to push for better severance payments or retraining money for laid-off workers, Ross argued.
“If you don’t accept that the workforce is going to be smaller and you think that you can still preserve the postal service as is, then those issues are not going to dealt with,” said Ross. “But it seems from their statements that’s where the union leadership is right now.”
The union, including its national executive board and national president Jan Simpson, appear to be hoping for the federal government to order binding arbitration, said Ross.
But a mediator could easily take a look at Canada Post’s finances and order a deal the union doesn’t like, Ross argued.
“All arbitrators will take into account ability to pay, right? Like one of the factors will be the economic situation of the employer,” said Ross. While fingers can be pointed at who to blame for the financial mess, there’s no disputing Canada Post is in rough shape, she added.
While CUPW is waiting for the federal government to order binding arbitration, the government is waiting for the union and Canada Post to reach a deal on their own, said York University labour studies professor Steven Tufts.
“CUPW’s given no evidence of any other strategy other than, perhaps get Canada Post to arbitration,” said Tufts, who had expected the union to end the strike after the meeting with Lightbound this week. “I thought they’d use the meeting as a pretext to end the strike, or go back in and start some real negotiating.”
The government, said Tufts, seems content to let the strike drag on — until it starts interrupting holiday parcel delivery — the same time frame it stepped in to end things last year.
In the meantime, union solidarity is wavering.
“This is the strategy being used by both sides — just to wait,” said Tufts. “It’s a strategy of stalemate.”
There’s no clear path forward for the union, added Brock University professor Larry Savage.
“The union has very little strategic leverage and government appears disinterested in offering CUPW a lifeline,” said Savage. “It’s not clear to me that CUPW has an exit strategy. I think the leadership may be waiting for an olive branch that may never be extended.”
