The Ontario Liberal Party will hold its annual general meeting in Toronto this weekend, where the future of leader Bonnie Crombie will be put to the test.
Card-carrying Liberals will be voting on whether or not to hold a new leadership convention. Publicly, Liberal caucus members are lining up behind her, saying they believe Crombie will survive the leadership referendum.
The party’s Executive Council voted unanimously in March to support Crombie remaining on as party Leader, despite the fact she was unable to win her seat in the riding of Mississauga East-Cooksville. The Liberals were able to regain official party status for the first time in seven years, winning 14 seats in last February’s provincial election. Crombie pointed out that the party received 30 per cent of the popular vote while electing five new MPPs, flipping both PC and NDP ridings.
Crombie has said she intends to try again to win a seat in the legislature, but won’t ask any caucus members to step aside to open up a seat for her.
Privately, Liberal insiders say Crombie’s hold on the party leadership is tenuous, expressing concerns that she is not the right person to lead them into the next provincial election.
A report released by the party earlier in the week, looking back at their performance in the provincial election, concluded their campaign’s focus on health care and a family doctor shortage did not resonate with voters, who were more focused on affordability. The campaign debrief also found there was not enough to differentiate the Liberals from the NDP or Progressive Conservatives, and not enough was done to define Doug Ford.
“Despite a record marked by policy reversals, scandal, and underperformance, he was able to present himself as a steady hand in uncertain times,” the report said. “We did not sufficiently challenge this narrative or connect his actions to the instability and economic anxiety Ontarians were experiencing.”
Technically, Crombie needs 50 per cent support to remain as leader, but Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith, who finished runner-up to Crombie in the 2023 leadership race, recently said in an open letter to supporters that a simple 51 majority would not be enough.
“Two-thirds support should be the minimum expectation,” he wrote.
Erskine-Smith concedes he would have an interest in the leadership again if delegates decide to make a change at the top.
When asked what she would do if she gets less than that type of support, Crombie said she was “confident and hopeful” of a positive result and that any other decision would be made “after the fact.”
Crombie is scheduled to address delegates on Saturday, and the results of the leadership vote are expected to be known on Sunday evening.
