OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada’s survey of businesses shows confidence across the country is still weak thanks largely to persistent trade uncertainty from the United States.
The central bank’s quarterly business outlook survey released this morning shows tariffs and lingering questions about the trade dispute are holding many firms back from investing in their operations and expanding payrolls.
The Bank of Canada summarizes answers from its survey into a single indicator of business confidence and sales expectations. The measure improved marginally from the second quarter of the year, but remained well below historical averages.
Most exporters report their goods are still entering the U.S. tariff-free, but firms in the steel and aluminum industries are expressing doubt that overseas markets can offset the hit from higher duties in the U.S. market.
The survey shows nearly a third of businesses are now expecting a recession to hit Canada, up five percentage points from the last survey.
The Bank of Canada’s related survey of consumers shows two-thirds of Canadians are expecting a recession, though most households feel their own financial health has improved from the previous quarter.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 20, 2025.
