OTTAWA – Consumers continue to feel the weight of high prices and economic uncertainty, while business sentiment is also subdued.
A pair of reports by the Bank of Canada published Monday offered a look at how both companies and households viewed the economy in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Business leaders reported fewer tariff-related cost pressures than the previous quarter in the central bank’s business outlook survey, although the pressure is still widespread.
“Businesses continue to cite uncertainty surrounding financial, economic and political conditions, slowing demand, and cost pressures as their most pressing concerns,” the report said.
The report noted that businesses reported weak sales growth over the past 12 months, with one-third citing a decline in their sales volumes.
However, it said the balance of opinion on future sales indicators has turned positive with 43 per cent saying they have seen an improvement compared with 12 months ago versus 30 per cent that have seen a deterioration.
“Still, the balance remains below its historical average, suggesting only modest growth,” the report said.
“While businesses continue to report negative effects — some coming directly from tariffs but even more coming indirectly from trade tensions — they do not expect these effects to worsen further.”
In a separate report on Monday, the Bank of Canada said consumers continue to show concern about high prices and economic uncertainty related to the trade conflict with worries about missing a debt payment and losing their job up from the third quarter.
More respondents said their financial health had deteriorated than in the previous report.
The survey also noted that consumer spending plans continue to be weak. High prices, economic uncertainty and the cost of housing remain the biggest factors constraining household spending.
When thinking about international trade, respondents who felt the most serious effect is still to come were more pessimistic about their financial health over the next year.
Compared with last quarter, fewer businesses were planning or budgeting for a recession in Canada over the next 12 months, at 22 per cent, down from 33 per cent in the previous report.
The outlook survey noted that low crude prices are weighing on the energy sector as businesses expect prices to remain at current levels of US$60 per barrel through 2026.
“Low oil prices are weighing on sentiment, prompting firms to streamline production and tighten cost structures,” the report said.
However, it noted oilsands production, which accounts for the majority of Canada’s crude oil production, generally remains viable at currently expected price levels.
The reports come ahead of the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate decision and monetary policy report expected on Jan. 28.
The business outlook survey was conducted by in-person, video and phone interviews from Nov. 6 to Nov. 26, 2025. The Canadian survey of consumer expectations was done through an online panel from Oct. 30 to Nov. 18, 2025, with follow‑up phone interviews from Nov. 21 to 27, 2025.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 19, 2026.
