January homes sales in the Toronto area dropped by nearly eight per cent compared with last year, but prices crept up slightly as more buyers entered the market for single-family homes.
There were 3,847 home sales in the GTA in January — down 7.9 per cent compared with the same period last year. New listings amounted to 12,392, which shot up by 48.6 per cent year-over-year, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s (TRREB) January report.
The sales-to-new-listings ratio was 30 per cent, which means Toronto is in a buyers’ market. In this environment, buyers have more negotiating power as there’s more supply on the market.
The listings that came to market in January “sold well” with multiple offers across for properties at different price points, said Cailey Heaps, president and CEO of real estate agency The Heaps Estrin Team.
“There was still strength in the market in January,” she said.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, January sales were up 10 per cent month-over-month compared with December 2024, TRREB said. The average selling price, at $1.04 million, was up by 1.5 per cent compared with January 2024.
Home prices increased year-over-year for detached, semi-detached and townhomes at 2.1 per cent, 1.1 per cent and 1.6 per cent, respectively. Condo prices decreased by 1.6 per cent annually.
Sales also dropped for all property types except for semi-detached homes which saw an annual increase of 2.9 per cent — that could be from the change in mortgage rules which allow homebuyers to pay less than 20 per cent down payment on a home listed up to $1.5 million — it used to be $1 million, experts say.
The condo market continued to lag with sales down 12 per cent year-over-year indicating that the market is struggling to find end-users who want to buy shoebox apartments.
But after the Bank of Canada’s sixth interest rate cut on Jan. 29 bringing the overnight lending rate to three per cent, it could entice more buyers as borrowing costs lower.
“A growing number of homebuyers will take advantage of lower borrowing costs as we move toward the 2025 spring market, resulting in increased transactions and a moderate uptick in average selling prices in 2025,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.
Heaps also said that she’s had buyers come back to the market as a result of declining interest rates, which “remains a bright spot for housing.”
Uncertainty remains as the looming threat of a trade war with the U.S. dampens the market, playing on buyer and seller psychology. A recession would be a disincentive to taking on a massive debt such as a mortgage.
“The positive impact of lower mortgage rates could be reduced, at least temporarily, by the negative impact of trade disruptions on the economy and consumer confidence,” Mercer said.
The threat of a trade war in March and the economic fallout from it creates uncertainty in the housing market in February, said Heaps, and possibly beyond depending on how long “it drags on.”
“Some sellers are holding off on listing to first gauge the impact of potential tariffs on the broader economy,” she said.
