The first official shot in a trade war that experts fear will hammer the North American economy could come at any moment, as U.S. President Donald Trump is set to impose heavy tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports beginning Saturday — with oil and natural gas escaping the hit until Feb. 18.
The precise timing and scope of all the tariffs — and whether there will be any room to wiggle out of them — are still up in the air. And so is just what Canada would do to retaliate.
As of Friday evening, there still hadn’t been any official executive order signed by the Trump about the tariffs on the U.S.‘s neighbours and largest trading partners.
Trump announced late Friday afternoon that he’d be imposing across-the-board 25 per cent tariffs on imports from both neighbouring countries Saturday, but would hold off placing a 10 per cent tariff on Canadian oil and gas until Feb. 18.
On Thursday, Trump suggested that he’d consider not putting tariffs on Canadian oil and gas, as long as they were being sold “at the right price.”
In 2023, the most recent year for which annual data is available, Canadian exports to the U.S. totalled $594.5 billion (Canadian), according to official statistics from the federal ministry for Innovation, Science and Economic Development.
In top spot at $130.3 billion? Crude oil. Other petroleum products being shipped to our southern neighbour added up to another $36.6 billion.
Even the U.S. government’s own trade figures show that America imports hundreds of billions of dollars of products from Canada. Through the first 11 months of 2024, the U.S. brought in $377.2 billion (U.S.) in Canadian imports. (That’s $542.5 billion Canadian).
The second-biggest component of Canadian exports to the U.S. is the automotive industry, which is highly-integrated on both sides of the border.
Canada exported roughly $75 billion in cars, trucks and automotive parts to the U.S. in 2023. Industry insiders say some materials cross the Canada-U.S. border several times en route from raw material to finished vehicle.
