An increasingly bitter labour fight at Canada Post could be over as soon as Friday — but labour experts say not to count on it.
Voting by up to 53,000 postal workers on the Crown corporation’s ‘final’ contract offer closes Friday at 5 p.m., wrapping up balloting overseen by the Canada Industrial Relations Board which began July 21.
If the vote — ordered by the federal government — is in favour of the deal, employees would finally have a contract after 18 months of bargaining, a month-long strike last winter, and a key report from an arbitrator.
But that’s unlikely to happen, according to labour experts, who say forced votes are almost always counterproductive.
“I’m still thinking it will be rejected,” said Steven Tufts, a labour studies professor at York University. “Partly on the contents of the deal, but also just on principle.”
A ‘no’ vote, argued Tufts, likely means layoffs, sooner rather than later.
“I can’t see them not being punitive,” Tufts said.
In a written statement, Canada Post said it was still hoping members of the Canadian Union of Postal Workers will approve the contract offer, but wouldn’t comment on what would happen if it’s turned down. Roughly 70 per cent of eligible voters had already cast their ballot by Tuesday afternoon, the spokesperson said.
“We won’t speculate on what may happen in the event of a no vote other than we’d most likely be entering a period of heightened uncertainty and further unsustainable financial losses,” the spokesperson said. “Their vote is their choice and we are hopeful that a majority of them will choose to accept the offers.”
The spokesperson added that the Crown corporation lost roughly $10 million a day in June.
The union didn’t respond to a request for comment, but in a memo on the CUPW website, national president Jan Simpson urged members to vote no.
“The Government and Canada Post have worked together to undermine our hard-fought rights and force a vote we did not want,” Simpson wrote. “The best collective agreements come from real negotiations, not by bypassing worker rights.”
Rafael Gomez, director of the University of Toronto’s Centre for Industrial Relations and Human Resources, said the losses make it likely the Crown corporation would consider layoffs in the event of a ‘no’ vote — an outcome, he adds, that is almost certain.
“Almost all forced votes see contracts get voted down. And then you consider that CUPW has a strong history of militancy, and that the delay between the order and the timing of the vote allowed them to make their case to their members,” said Gomez. “It’s looking even more like a no vote.”
On May 28, Canada Post made what it called its ‘final’ contract offer, which includes a 13 per cent wage hike spread over four years, as well as a $1,000 signing bonus. Two days later, it asked federal jobs minister Patty Hajdu to order a vote on the offer.
On June 12, Hajdu ordered the CIRB to organize a vote. The order came a month after a key report from mediator William Kaplan, who said the Crown corporation was effectively insolvent.
The union has repeatedly criticized Canada Post, saying it was trying to avoid a negotiated settlement by asking Hajdu to order a vote, and by insisting any arbitration be based Kaplan’s report.
Kaplan’s May 15 report suggested the use of community mailboxes, elimination of home delivery except for parcels, and closing some post office locations and replacing them with franchises.
Kaplan also suggested expanding parcel delivery to seven days a week, with the use of part-time and temporary employees.
