With voting by 53,000 postal workers finally underway on Canada Post’s ”final” contract offer, and most experts saying it will likely be rejected, what could happen next?
The Canadian Union of Postal Workers says a no vote should mean both sides get back to the bargaining table. The Crown corporation says it won’t speculate, but stresses that it’s losing $10 million a day during the labour dispute, thanks to nervous customers fleeing in droves.
Could a lockout or layoffs be next? Absolutely, say labour experts.
“I think layoffs are the next step for Canada Post if the deal is rejected, and I think it will be,” said Steven Tufts, a labour studies professor at York University.
The only question, said Tufts, is how many layoffs, and how soon.
“If it’s rejected, does Canada Post come back to the table and threaten layoffs, or is it shock and awe and they just do it?,” said Tufts. Either way, he added, it’s a pretty safe bet.
“It’s going to happen,” Tufts said.
Locking workers out is also a distinct possibility, argued Rafael Gomez, director of the University of Toronto’s Centre for Industrial Relations and Human Resources.
With the union’s current “strike action” limited to a ban on overtime, that means the Crown corporation is paying all its members their full salary, despite dwindling revenues, Gomez said.
“The incentive for a lockout is there for the employer,” said Gomez.
Voting — both online and via phone — began Monday at 7 a.m., and runs until 5 p.m. Aug. 1.
On May 28, Canada Post made what it called its “final” contract offer, which includes a 13 per cent wage hike spread over four years, as well as a $1,000 signing bonus. Two days later, it asked federal jobs minister Patty Hajdu to order a vote on the offer.
On June 12, Hajdu ordered the CIRB to organize a vote. The order came roughly a month after a key report from veteran mediator William Kaplan, who said the Crown corporation was effectively insolvent.
The union has repeatedly criticized the Crown corporation, saying it was trying to avoid a negotiated settlement by asking Hajdu to order a vote, and by insisting any arbitration be based Kaplan’s report, which was done as part of an Industrial Inquiry Commission ordered in December by then-labour minister Steven MacKinnon, who said Canada Post was effectively insolvent.
Kaplan also said there’s an impasse in bargaining, suggested arbitration wouldn’t be a good choice to deal with Canada Post’s need for restructuring, and said a final offer would be the third option for an end to the dispute.
Kaplan’s May 15 report suggested the use of community mailboxes, the elimination of home delivery except for parcels, and getting rid of some post office locations and replacing them with franchises.
Kaplan also suggested expanding parcel delivery to seven days a week, with the use of part-time and temporary employees.
