Carney minister says trade talks with Trump administration have resumed

But the tight-lipped minister declined to offer details on what progress, if any, has been made or on what new irritants have loomed, noting only that he met Trump’s trade ambassador Jamieson Greer in Washington on March 6, they remain in touch.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has also talked to Trump in the interim, and other Canadian officials including newly named Washington ambassador Mark Wiseman and lead trade negotiator Janice Charette have had contact with their counterparts too, LeBlanc said.

So it remains unclear if actual talks on reviewing, renewing or renegotiating the 2018 trilateral Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement are taking place, or whether the newly revived discussions are focused on Trump’s punishing sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, auto, copper and other tariffs (as they were last fall) or if other trade irritants such as the U.S. objections to Canadian provincial bans on U.S. alcohol sales are the focus.

All three countries that are signatories to the continental free trade deal must indicate by July 1 if they are willing to renew it for another 16 years, or want to renegotiate specific provisions toward renewal, or to withdraw entirely. Even then, LeBlanc said, the trade deal would remain in effect, until it isn’t. Other than sector-specific products like cars, steel and aluminum, most Canadian shipments into the U.S. that comply with North American content rules are still crossing the border tariff free.

As he has in the past, LeBlanc downplayed the fact that Mexicans and U.S. trade negotiators have formally sat down to discuss bilateral concerns.

He said there will always be cross-border issues specific to Mexico and Canada that each country will hammer out with the U.S. But he thinks Mexico also wants a renewed trilateral deal, and Canada’s view is they are talking about a review, not a full renegotiation. He said he is “optimistic that that review will conclude positively.”

Flavio Volpe, head of the Auto Parts Manufacturers Association, said in an interview that most discussions including with Mexico are taking place at a political level, as many of the frontline trade negotiators in the U.S. are tied up with new trade investigations ordered by Trump in the wake of his loss at the Supreme Court. He has ordered probes under different laws to justify new global tariffs. 

But Volpe noted that the Americans have deliberately made a very public show of the fact that they are talking to the Mexicans, suggested Canada is “lagging” behind, and are “not showing the same courtesy” to Canada’s trade team.

Brian Clow, a former senior adviser in Justin Trudeau’s government and one of the leads on Canada-U.S. trade, said as July 1 approaches, Canadians should “expect the pace and intensity of these talks to increase significantly.”

“The government is doing serious preparatory work right now, and that groundwork will matter when the pressure really builds,” said Clow. “The closer we get to July 1st, the more these negotiations will come into focus. There’s real work happening behind the scenes right now to make sure Canada is positioned when the talks intensify.”

LeBlanc said the Carney government will continue to pursue its economic trade diversification agenda to reduce Canada’s trade reliance on the U.S. 

“We’re not waiting by the phone to see if Jamieson Greer or (Commerce Secretary) Howard Lutnik call, or did somebody get a text message?” said LeBlanc.