The city is recalculating its flood model for the Black Creek runoff channel in one of Toronto’s most at-risk neighbourhoods, as residents and an independent engineer question whether the $295-million plan can even meet its core goal.
The project aims to reduce chronic flooding in the Rockcliffe-Smythe neighbourhood, where homes have been repeatedly damaged by rising water. Construction has begun on bridge work at Jane Street and Scarlett Road — key bottlenecks, the city says — while broader channel improvements, which could better reduce flooding, are years away.
Questions about the accuracy of flood computer modelling have left some residents uncertain whether the plan will deliver. Some fear it will fall short of its promises, while others worry delays could carry their own risks.
Independent engineer Tim Mereu, working alongside the Black Creek Flood coalition, said the plan has a “fundamental technical issue” after reviewing its environmental assessment, which he concluded relied on inaccurate modelling.
“They came up with a $200 million solution that won’t work,” Mereu said.
He said the current design would provide little to no benefit for as many as 90 per cent of the residents it is intended to help.
Mereu said the model used in the environmental assessment reduced friction in parts of the concrete channel, making the system appear capable of handling larger floods than it actually can.
If the modelling is flawed, he added, efforts to improve the capacity of concrete waterways could still leave much of the neighbourhood at risk.
Mereu met with city officials, including chief engineer Jennifer Graham Harkness, on March 12 and gave a 45-minute presentation on his analysis.
He said Harkness was receptive and assured him “the city will do the right thing” when the modelling is redone by the design consultant.
In conversations with the Star, the city said re-examining the model was always part of the plan, and any new findings would inform the detailed design. The project’s preliminary design has been finalized and will not be revisited. It remains unclear what would happen if updated modelling confirms Mereu’s concerns.
Both the city and the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority (TRCA) acknowledge the project will not eliminate flooding — an impossible task to promise — but say it will improve conditions.
“This work is about protecting the community by giving water more room to move through the system,” Harkness said. “We’re confident this is the most effective way to help protect homes from flooding.”
Resident and member of the Black Creek Flood Coalition, Sarah McVie, said she was “relieved” Mereu was able to present his findings, but still finds the situation “very concerning and confusing.”
“I am frustrated that us residents, the very people who are meant to be served by the project, have been left out,” she said.
McVie wants the city to explain why Mereu’s findings are not a concern — if that is the case — and to restore public confidence.
“Please reassure us that this project will not stop,” McVie said. “If we could have a public acknowledgment that they are committed to saving our lives, that would be nice.”
She said residents’ concerns were not taken seriously in 2024, and questioned why emails went unanswered, meetings were delayed and a promised final public consultation never happened.
“They have a duty of care,” McVie said. “From my perspective, that duty of care has not been met over the last few decades and certainly isn’t being met right now.”
The experience has left her fearful and frustrated with what she perceives as a broken system.
“It’s torture and of course people feel demoralized,” she said. “This is how apathy and hopelessness pervades.”
Matthew Zaffino is among the residents willing to move ahead with the plan, even if it means marginal relief. He has been waiting for the flooding to be addressed since he moved near Lavender Creek five years ago.
“Any flood is tremendously destabilizing,” Zaffino said, adding the worry lingers in the back of his mind whenever it rains.
“I tend to err on the side of ‘I’d rather not have my basement flood,’ even if the landscape is uglier.”
He said addressing flood risk must be the priority, warning that delays could have deadly consequences.
“If the number’s bad, the number’s bad,” Zaffino said.
“We don’t make society more prosperous by replacing two feet of drywall at the bottom of basements for a thousand people once every two years. That’s not a way of prosperity. That’s just stupid.”
