New condo sales will be slumping into 2026, with November seeing only 165 new-build condos selling across the Greater Toronto Area — including just 18 in the old city of Toronto, which includes the downtown core.
The dismal sales figures — unveiled in a monthly report by Altus Group on behalf of the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) — come towards the end of a sluggish year for new housing sales regionwide, with new single-family home sales in the GTA down 38 per cent from an already depressed 2024, as new condo sales have dropped 55 per cent.
From January to November of this year, the Altus data shows 3,067 new single-family homes sold across the GTA, down from 13,216 sold in 2021, along with 1,965 new condos, down from more than 30,000 in 2021.
Builders aren’t holding their breath for a reprieve in December, either, says BILD’s chief operating officer, Justin Sherwood.
“Our projection is that we will be finishing in the 55,000 total units sold range for 2025, making it the worst year on record since Altus — and the predecessors to Altus — started keeping records back in 1981,” Sherwood said.
While the benchmark price for a new single-family home in the GTA dropped nine per cent in November compared to the same month last year, now sitting at around $1.4 million, the benchmark price for new condos has crept up by 0.5 per cent to $1.022 million.
To afford a new condo at that price — according to national standards that say housing costs should not exceed 30 per cent of a household’s pre-tax income, and assuming a 20 per cent down payment of more than $204,000 along with a mortgage rate of 5.25 per cent — a household would need to earn at least $195,000 a year. That is without considering associated costs like condo fees.
One of the main roadblocks to selling new housing in the GTA remains affordability, Altus Group’s Edward Jegg said in a press release accompanying the latest figures.
But Sherwood argued builders couldn’t simply drop their prices, especially for units already under construction, with little wiggle room on increasingly costly elements such as land, materials and labour.
“The costs of those are fixed,” he said.
He sees highrise condos, especially, as restrained in terms of costs — noting that, for single-family homes, developers have more room to adjust the type and unit size of the homes on offer.
BILD has been calling for more aggressive policy changes to reduce costs on developers, with Sherwood reiterating their calls for a “full exemption” from harmonized sales tax (HST) for all buyers of new builds.
Sales of new condos have plunged across the Greater Toronto Area. In Halton, only five new condos sold last month, down from 98 in November 2023 and 60 in November 2024, the data shows. York Region fared better for condos, with 82 new units selling last month versus 27 a year ago, though its single-family home sales were down from to 85 from 157.
In Peel, the new single-family home market had a stronger November than it has in two years, the Altus data indicates, with 125 sales versus 100 the same month in 2024 and 49 in 2023, plus a slight increase in new condo sales year-over-year, with 25 units selling last month versus 19 a year earlier.
More than half of the new single-family homes that sold in Peel last month came from a single project, Sherwood told the Star — specifying that it was a development of “back-to-back” townhomes of around 1,300 square feet apiece, which he said were available at a more “aggressive price-point.”
Across the GTA, Sherwood expects the new single-family home market will rebound before the new condo market, given those builders’ flexibility.
Looking back at 2025 so far, Sherwood noted this year has seen a “record number” of new units hitting the market — a trend he expects into 2026, forecasting a “very high number of completions” from projects that started under more favourable development conditions.
But as sales have tapered, new projects are being iced — and Sherwood expects to see the consequences, through reduced supply, from 2027 onward.
“In order to get significant traction, we do need to see relatively bold policy steps that will lower the cost of units coming to the market,” he said.
