There’s a 3,000-person shortage of air traffic controllers in the U.S., but it’s still too early to say whether that shortage played a role in Sunday’s fatal collision between an Air Canada jet and a fire truck on one of the world’s busiest runways, air safety experts say.
The collision took place Sunday night on a runway at New York’s LaGuardia Airport as the Air Canada flight from Montreal was landing, and the firetruck was attempting to reach a United Airlines plane which was on another runway.
In a recording of airport audio, a flight controller is heard frantically telling the fire truck to stop after having given it the all-clear just moments earlier.
Long-time flight safety analyst and former accident investigator David Soucie said it’s possible — but far from certain — that the shortage played a role in the collision.
“Is there more for potential for mistakes when there’s a shortage? Certainly it introduces risks that might not otherwise be there,” said Soucie, a former top Federal Aviation Administration flight accident inspector who has investigated and analyzed hundreds of transportation accidents.
Still, Soucie is hesitant to draw a straight line between the shortage of air traffic controllers employed by the FAA and Sunday’s tragedy. For one thing, Soucie noted, the FAA has recently started cutting back on flights in and out of airports when they don’t have enough controllers on duty.
“For the first time, the FAA’s actually said ‘if we don’t have enough controllers at an airport, we’re going to restrict flights,’” Soucie said.
Even if an airport is fully staffed, however, air traffic controllers can make a mistake, Soucie added.
“Irrespective of staffing levels, there’s always a chance of a controller getting overworked,” said Soucie.
A top U.S. aviation safety lawyer said there’s no doubt that the air traffic control shortage is making the American aviation system riskier.
“There’s a shortage, and that’s a safety issue,” said Kevin P. Durkin, the head of the aviation litigation group at Chicago-based Clifford Law.
While it’s still too early to have a precise understanding of what led to Sunday’s accident, Durkin said the amount of work by control tower staff Sunday night should be a key part of investigations by the FAA and the National Transportation Safety Board.
“Number one, I hope they look at the workload. We don’t know for sure yet how many people there were working,” said Durkin. “If there was one person, that’s not good.”
Air industry veteran John Gradek agreed that the workload and schedule faced by air traffic controllers is something that should be looked at by investigators.
“My gut tells me I want to check this guy’s work schedule and sleep patterns. Are they working double shifts? Because if you’re working 14, 16 or 18 hours, your mind can wander,” said Gradek, head of the aviation management program at McGill University.
A collision on an active runway is a rarity, given the potentially catastrophic results, he added.
“A collision with another vehicle on the ground is very rare, especially on an active runway,” said Gradek. “Everybody knows if it’s an active runway, stay the f—- away from it.”
Longtime flight safety advocate and aviation professional Hassan Shahidi stressed that there’s almost never just a single cause with aviation accidents.
“There’s usually a cascading series of factors,” said Shahidi, CEO of the Flight Safety Foundation.
Staffing levels, Shahidi noted, will be just one part of the NTSB’s investigation.
“They’ll be looking at communications, they’ll be looking at situational awareness for the pilot and the truck driver,” said Shahidi. “They’ll be looking at ‘what was the workload on that particular controller in that situation?,” Shahidi said. “They’ll be looking at frequency management, whether or not the fire truck and the plane were on the same frequency.”
The FAA has been pushing harder than it ever has to cut flights into and out of airports if they don’t have enough flight controllers on duty, said Shahidi. It has also, he noted, been on a hiring spree to shrink the shortage.
Still, though, filling that 3,000-person gap will actually likely mean the FAA needs to hire up to 8,000 or 9,000 controllers thanks to retirements or other people leaving the industry.
“That’s 3,000 net. They’re going to need a lot more than that,” said Shahidi.
And that, he said, could take some time — highly trained professionals don’t exactly grow on trees.
“It takes two or three years to be certified. It really does take time,” said Shahidi.
And, added former inspector Soucie, if the U.S. government’s goal of revamping the entire safety system takes place, there will be a need for even more controllers during the changeover period.
“You’ve got to keep people trained. It’s not like a suit you have hanging in the closet just waiting to be worn. You’ve got to keep them current,” said Soucie.
Still, Soucie added, he has no hesitation telling friends and family to fly — or not.
“If you don’t feel safe flying, don’t fly. But I’m taking my 12-year-old with me to Paris in the next few weeks, and I’m not concerned at all,” said Soucie.
