In a remarkable reversal, more Americans visited Canada in June and July of this year than Canadians visited the U.S., according to recent data from Statistics Canada.
The shift marks the first time cross-border visitor traffic between the two countries has reversed in more than 20 years, except for a period during the pandemic lockdown.
It’s being driven by a combination of patriotic U.S. travel boycotts in light of threats of annexation and Trump’s tariffs, as well as heightened fears of being detained at the U.S. border, experts say.
In July, the number of Canadian residents returning from the U.S. by car plummeted by 36.9 per cent compared to the same month last year, according to preliminary international arrivals data released by Statistics Canada, with the number of Canadian residents returning by air travel down by almost as much, at 25.8 per cent.
According to Geena Bevenour, marketing manager at Tourism Economics, a worldwide travel data agency, the drop in Canadian travellers will have a big impact on the American tourism industry.
Canadian visitors made up 28 per cent of all international overnight visits to the U.S. in 2024, she said.
“In many (U.S.) cities, declines in Canadian visitors are expected to account for more than 90 per cent of the decline in international visitors expected this year,” said Bevenour. She added that while Canadian travel to the U.S. has declined year-to-date, “Canadian travel to other world regions has increased an estimated 6.6 per cent.”
“A steep pullback in Canadian travel” is expected to most negatively impact U.S. cities such as Seattle, Portland and Detroit, said Bevenour. Weak booking data for the rest of the summer season suggests the declines will persist.
Many Canadian individuals and organizations are choosing to avoid U.S. travel, instead choosing to travel within Canada or to other destinations.
Last week, Girl Guides of Canada announced it will pause all travel to the U.S., “including both previously approved trips and any future trips,” effective Sept 1.
The decision was “prompted by the recent restrictions put on equal entry into the United States, as some members may hold citizenship from non-Canadian countries and could be impacted by the restrictions,” the Girl Guides media team said in an email. “This decision is rooted in our commitment to inclusivity and the safety of all our members.”
Flight Centre Canada’s Amra Durakovic said that overall, new leisure bookings to the U.S. are down about 40 per cent year-over-year for summer 2025. She added that “domestic travel rose five per cent and international travel beyond the U.S. remains strong.”
Based on leisure bookings for May to August 2025, compared with the same period last year, some of the fastest-growing overseas destinations for Canadians include New Zealand, up more than 200 per cent, Argentina capital Buenos Aires, up 148 per cent, Japan’s Osaka, up 137 per cent, and Copenhagen, Denmark, up 112 per cent.
Corey Fram, director of the 1000 Islands International Tourism Council, said the 1000 Islands region, which spans the U.S.-Canada border between Kingston and Brockville in Ontario, has traditionally attracted tourists from both sides of the border, but there has been a big shift.
“What we’ve seen is a significant decrease in Canadian visitation to the U.S. side of our destination,” said Fram.
In response, Fram said, the Council chose to modify its marketing tactics this year. “We made the decision back in the first quarter to tone down the amount of U.S. iconic imagery for the region in our advertising and marketing that was facing Canadians.”
“I don’t expect that we’re going to get back to 2024 levels right away, ” said Fram. “But we’re going to continue to make sure that our ‘open’ sign, our ‘welcome’ sign, stays lit and facing north.”
