Ottawa voters can expect a last-minute scramble that offers little time or opportunity to learn about individual candidates.
Welcome to the slapdash provincial election.
Normally, preparations for an election begin months before the vote and political parties are ready to go on day one. Lawn signs pop up, candidates have already been out knocking on doors, campaign offices are open and candidate websites explain who they are.
Instead, Ottawa voters can expect a last-minute scramble that offers little time or opportunity to learn about individual candidates. Many were chosen in the last few days and even basic biographical information is not yet available.
In Ottawa’s eight ridings, the NDP has so far nominated only three candidates. Two of them are in ridings the party already holds. Have they simply given up?
The Liberals have done better, with candidates in seven ridings. Surprisingly, as of Wednesday the party had not named a candidate in Ottawa West-Nepean, a riding it has held in the past and one it needs if the Liberals are to gain on the NDP.
One would have thought the Progressive Conservatives would be best prepared, since they are the ones calling the election, but six of their eight local candidates were named this week. They have last-minute candidates in a riding they hold and two they have held in the past, Kanata-Carleton and Ottawa West-Nepean. That’s not the way to get the massive majority PC leader Doug Ford wants.
Ford’s decision to hold a snap election in February has severely disadvantaged both candidates and voters. There’s a reason Ontario hasn’t had a winter election since 1981. The logistics are terrible. Imagine trying to drive campaign signs into frozen ground. Think about how likely voters are to spend time chatting at the door in below-freezing temperatures. Pity the candidates who are supposed to spend hours every day trudging through the snow.
As if that weren’t enough, the Liberal leadership race and impending federal political drama will drown out the provincial election — especially here, in federal politics central.
The only people who come out ahead in a snap election are incumbents, who already have name recognition, engaged riding associations and supporter lists. Newcomers, especially last-minute newcomers, will be in a tough spot.
The only people who come out ahead in a snap election are incumbents.
Expect our local Liberal members to do well on Feb. 27. Ottawans voted them in when their party was at its lowest point. What would change their minds now? That means four of Ottawa’s seats, at least, will go Liberal.
The NDP’s Chandra Pasma is running again in Ottawa West-Nepean. A lame Liberal effort there should ensure her victory. Former councillor and mayoral candidate Catherine McKenney is running in Ottawa Centre to replace NDP colleague Joel Harden, who is running federally. Expect an NDP win there. PCs aren’t much of a factor and the Liberal candidate was a late entrant.
That leaves just two Ottawa ridings. Nepean, long held by PC MPP Lisa MacLeod, is up for grabs due to her retirement. Liberal Tyler Watt came close last time and he’s running again. PC Alex Lewis, an Ottawa police officer, is a credible contender. It will be an interesting race.
Carleton riding was won last time by PC Goldie Ghamari, who was later ejected from the PC caucus. The party’s candidate this time is Ottawa city councillor George Darouze. He’s a veteran politician but far from the cabinet-level candidate one might have hoped the PCs would offer in their only truly safe riding.
The biggest Ottawa-specific provincial issue is Mayor Mark Sutcliffe’s request for provincial money to help offset OC Transpo’s operating deficit. This week, the federal government finally promised some help, with various conditions. Sutcliffe seems confident that the provincial government will, too, but not until after the election. What made them wait? Ford’s government has been spraying money in every direction.
Strategically, Ottawa is not well placed if most of its MPPs are from opposition parties. It would be far better to have some local representation within the likely PC government, but Ford’s timing has made that more challenging than it should be.
Randall Denley is an Ottawa journalist and author. Contact him at [email protected]
