OTTAWA — Canada could be on the lower end of U.S. President Donald Trump’s threatened global tariffs next week, the Star has learned.
Nothing, however, is guaranteed until Trump decides ahead of his April 2 deadline — which he’s dubbed “liberation day” for America — and no government officials are taking any assurances for granted, sources said.
As the tense cross-border relationship plays out on the federal election campaign trail, Canadian sources with knowledge of discussions between the two countries say White House officials have suggested Trump may impose three escalating levels of tariffs on America’s trading partners, with Canada getting hit on the lower end of the scale.
The Star spoke to three sources and agreed not to identify them so that they could speak frankly about the sensitive bilateral discussions. Despite a recent news report the tiered-approach is not on the table, the sources said it aligns with the government’s understanding of what’s about to hit next week.
One insider said U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has conveyed that countries would be targeted at a low, medium or high tariff level. A second source said there is no clear information about what the high level might be — “is it 25, 70, 100 per cent or more?” — and which countries would face the upper range of tariffs. But the suggestion is tariffs in Canada’s case could be “cumulative,” said a second source. Canadian steel and aluminum shipments to the U.S. have been penalized with a 25 per cent tariff since Mar. 12.
Flavio Volpe, head of the Canadian Auto Parts Manufacturers Association, said the Star’s information corresponds to what he was hearing in Washington on Monday, but he added, “I wouldn’t take any comfort from Canada being in the tier with the lowest tariffs, because any tariff is bad, but also because we’ve got five layers of tariffs” threatened against Canada.
“It may just be that some other countries who have been levied a higher universal tariff are looking just at that,” while Canada gets slapped with multiple levies, Volpe said.
Nevertheless, Volpe said he detected a “subtle shift in tone” in meetings with congressional representatives in Washington compared to a few weeks ago. That’s when Canadians were on an intense meetings blitz with American officials trying to persuade Trump to halt threatened 25 per cent so-called “border-related” tariffs on all Canadian imports.
At that time, said Volpe, American officials sat with “blank faces” in meetings, listened, and told Canadians, “We support the president and he’s got a plan.” Now, he said, after markets have reflected dismay at the tariffs, and elected officials travelled to and from their districts, Volpe senses more engagement. “Everybody’s looking for Canada to do more about its obligations on defence spending and being a close partner to the United States on critical minerals and rebuffing China,” he said.
Uncertainty about tariffs and the future economic fallout of tariffs — and the question of who is the better leader to stand up to Trump to represent Canada’s interests — have framed political messages from the major party leaders since the 2025 election campaign launched Sunday.
On Tuesday, Liberal Leader Mark Carney — who polls show most Canadians currently trust as the best choice to confront Trump — outlined plans to accelerate defence spending to reach NATO’s two per cent of GDP spending target before 2030.
Promising to “rebuild, reinvest and rearm” Canada, he outlined plans — with not much detail — to deliver new submarines and icebreakers, to re-equip and shift Coast Guard patrol vessels for double duty, to deploy aquatic and airborne drones for surveillance, to increase the ranks of military personnel (and to pay and house them better), and to modernize Canada’s procurement system to speed up defence purchases. He also vowed Canadian steel and aluminum would be used in shipbuilding and other projects.
A Liberal government under him would be more “deliberate” about assessing the costs and benefits “or the risks and benefits” of Canada’s interoperability with U.S. defence systems, Carney said.
He said Ottawa will consider domestic security needs, “value for money” and Canadian content when it comes to the review he ordered of the planned purchase of 88 U.S.-made F-35 stealth fighter jets, and continues to suggest alternatives will be considered. The Star reported last week Carney is eyeing a tighter partnership with Europe that could see Swedish Gripen fighter jets built here.
“The United States is still a strong ally. It is still member of NATO … but actually, in all aspects of our procurement, we will be thinking about how to secure Canadians and how to have the maximum benefit for Canadians, because that is what will make Canada strong,” Carney said in the face of geopolitical pressures.
”Our sovereignty faces the greatest threats in generations,” he asserted. At another point, he repeated a now-familiar line he has used in stump speeches since Sunday: “President Trump wants to break us so America can own us.”
Trump continues to claim Canada should become his country’s 51st state, and to threaten Greenland as well.
On Tuesday, that was put in stark relief as U.S. Vice-President JD Vance said he will travel to Greenland with his wife this week to underscore American security interests, tying Canada to Greenland as a target of hostile actors that need U.S. protection.
“A lot of other countries have threatened Greenland, have threatened to use its territories and its waterways to threaten the United States, to threaten Canada, and, of course, to threaten the people of Greenland,” Vance said in a video on X.
“Speaking for President Trump, we want to reinvigorate the security of the people of Greenland, because we think it’s important to protecting the security of the entire world.”
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh have slammed Carney as someone who is beholden to corporate interests and will not stand up for Canadians in the face of Trump’s tariff threats.
Conservative defence critic James Bezan, his party’s candidate for Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, criticized Carney’s plan as “just a reannouncement of more broken Liberal promises that provides no details, answers no questions, and makes Canadians no safer than they have been under the lost Liberal decade.”
Before the election was called, Poilievre promised to double the number of Rangers patrolling in the north, to build a new permanent base at CFB Iqaluit, and to buy two additional polar icebreakers for the Royal Canadian Navy. Bezan said a more elaborate defence plan will come later in the campaign.
The NDP defence plan promises to build F-35 jets in Canada, not the U.S., to increase spending on the military to two per cent of GDP by 2032 — the same target the Trudeau government had set — through pay increases, better equipment, more military housing, and new marine search and rescue stations, including in central Nunavut.
