Half a million Ontario workers could lose their jobs if American tariffs hit full-force on a wide range of industries once Donald Trump is back in the White House, Premier Doug Ford warns.
Ford painted a stark unemployment picture for the manufacturing engine of Canada as premiers head to Ottawa to meet with departing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Wednesday.
It will be the first in-person leaders’ meeting in two years and comes against the backdrop of concerns that Canada’s response to Trump’s 25-per-cent-tariff threat has been hamstrung by federal Liberal leadership tumult.
“This is serious, it’s unprecedented, and let’s hope it doesn’t cost 500,000 jobs,” Ford said Tuesday, noting that number is based on estimates provided by provincial ministries this week with the fear that factories could be shuttered.
“It all depends on the amount of tariffs, what sectors they’re affecting,” said the premier, who backs Canadian retaliatory levies if Trump doesn’t back down.
Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, Trudeau’s point person on the U.S. trade war threat, said “we’re not going to speculate” on how many people could be thrown out of work across Canada if the U.S. imposes levies on Canadian products shipped to America. Nor would he say whether Canada would respond by putting an export surcharge on oil and gas shipments to U.S. customers — a move Alberta and Saskatchewan adamantly oppose.
“We’ll be ready, of course, to respond from a position of strength, and, we hope, as a unified country,” LeBlanc said at Queen’s Park with Ford at his side.
Trump begins his second term as president on Monday.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who visited the president-elect at his Mar-a-Lago resort over the weekend, has spoken out against retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. that would impact her province’s lucrative oil export revenues.
But LeBlanc stressed “the only responsible thing for the national government is to acknowledge that all options are on the table.”
“We need to be ready to deploy all of the measures necessary to defend the Canadian economy. But we’re not going to publicly speculate what is or what isn’t an option,” he said as Ford nodded approvingly.
New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt said in an interview that despite political turmoil in Ottawa, the premiers have worked with the federal government on potential tariff lists, and have reached out with American counterparts to try and pre-empt any levies.
Holt wants to see how the federal government intends to deal with any influx of migrants to Canada should Trump also issue a mass deportation order.
“We’ll need clear processes in terms of how we detain folks who have crossed over into Canada illegally and then where their final destination is, whether it’s back to the U.S., where they’re being deported from, or to a country of origin.”
Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Andrew Furey said “a unified Team Canada approach” is essential after Wednesday’s confab.
“I would like to see a cohesive strategy about a proportional response,” said Furey, adding it could entail “fiscal tariffs” or more targeted “political” levies that would directly impact Trump and his sphere of influencers.
Ford praised LeBlanc for Ottawa’s “solid” $1.3 billion border plan that includes long-range surveillance drones, new canine units, helicopters and more RCMP and Canada Border Services Agency patrols.
It is hoped that might appease Trump, who launched his tariff salvo against Canada and Mexico with a demand that America’s neighbours tighten their borders to stem illegal immigration and fentanyl smuggling.
Details of the border security plan will be made public Wednesday morning at an Ottawa news conference by Public Safety Minister David McGuinty and Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Minister Marc Miller.
With Ontario doing $500 billion in two-way trade annually with the U.S., Ford has repeatedly said his province would be hurt more than any other.
LeBlanc expressed gratitude to the premier for being “an effective advocate for the interests of the Canadian economy.”
Ford said Trump’s plan for slapping 25-per-cent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico could necessitate “tens of billions” of dollars in government supports for Ontario workers and industries.
Ottawa would be there to help just as the two governments worked in unison during the COVID-19 pandemic, added LeBlanc.
“The government of Canada will, of course, be there to support industries and workers in collaboration with Premier Ford and his government and (Wednesday’s) conversation allows all of us to discuss how we can be ready next week,” the finance minister said.
With speculation rampant about a snap provincial election within weeks, Ford argued the level of spending is so significant it may require him to seek a new mandate.
But he would not detail how any such government expenditures could break down.
According to the provincial government, there were 8.1 million people working in Ontario last month — 82 per cent in full-time jobs and the unemployment rate is 7.5 per cent. So the loss of 450,000 to 500,000 jobs would be a serious blow.
Ford, who will be in Washington twice next month to lobby U.S. lawmakers against the measures, said “these tariffs will affect every single person, even if they don’t think there’s a tariff in their sector — it’s going to indirectly affect them, it’s not going to be good.”
Ford dismissed concerns that plunging Ontario into an election, instead of waiting until the next scheduled provincewide vote in June 2026, would add to the “uncertainty” he has been complaining about in Ottawa.
“I’ll still be premier if that happens. We haven’t decided. I’ll still be working, answering the calls, speaking to U.S. governors and congresspeople, speaking to other premiers … you never stop working.”
New Democrat Leader Marit Stiles and Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie have urged Ford not to call an early election and said they would work with his majority government on economic stimulus packages.
“You’ve got a mandate,” Stiles told Ford on Monday. “You don’t need to go to the polls.”
Crombie said “Donald Trump and his tariffs should be treated as a threat not as an excuse for an illegitimate early election call” that would cost taxpayers $175 million.
