In the end, it was a $189-million snap election that changed almost nothing at Queen’s Park.
Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives were re-elected with a third majority but failed to win the “stronger mandate” he had insisted he needed to fight U.S. President Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs on Canadian goods.
Ford’s Tories, who had hopes of winning 90 to 100 ridings in the 124-member legislature, lost incumbents and ended up with 80 seats, three fewer than they won in 2022, pending recounts in several close contests.
That was somewhat sobering even though he became the first leader to win three consecutive majorities since PC premier Leslie Frost 66 years ago, surpassing the electoral success of Tory titans like Bill Davis, John Robarts and Mike Harris and Liberal Dalton McGuinty.
NDP Leader Marit Stiles remained official opposition leader even though her party was a distant third in the popular vote with just 18.5 per cent far behind the Tories’ 42.9 per cent and the Liberals’ 29.9 per cent.
But the New Democrats’ voter efficiency — with concentrated pockets of support in Toronto, Ottawa, London and Niagara — translated that to 27 seats on Thursday. That’s down four from their 2022 election tally.
Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie fell short of winning a seat, but managed to return her party to official status in the house, meaning more resources and a greater role in legislative proceedings.
Still, the Liberals’ inefficient vote, which was spread across the province, meant they only won 14 seats despite taking 29.9 per cent of the popular vote. That’s up from the eight they won in 2022 when they failed to make the 12-seat threshold for official standing.
Crombie, who will face a post-election leadership review, vowed to remain at the helm even after losing Mississauga East-Cooksville to PC Silvia Gualtieri.
It was a third successive disappointment for the Liberals, who had governed Ontario under former premiers McGuinty and Kathleen from 2003 until 2018.
Green Leader Mike Schreiner‘s hopes of a third seat were dashed on the shores of Parry Sound-Muskoka.
Schreiner, whose party held its two seats, won 4.8 per cent of the popular vote, but were disappointed Matt Richter couldn’t topple Tory Graydon Smith in cottage country despite spending much of the 29-day writ period in the bucolic riding.
Early Friday, some Tories worried the two-term governing party had been hubristic with the early call — 15 months ahead of the scheduled June 2026 election — and the boasts about gaining opposition-held seats in Toronto, Ottawa, Niagara and London.
“You think Christine and Patrice are happy we were sending staff to Niagara (on election day) instead of helping them?” said one senior party official, speaking confidentially in order to discuss internal deliberations.
That was a reference to Tory incumbents Christine Hogarth, who lost in Etobicoke-Lakeshore to Liberal Lee Fairclough, and Patrice Barnes, who fell to Liberal Rob Cerjanec in Ajax by just 331 votes.
In the night’s closest race, two-term NDP incumbent Guy Bourgouin held Mushkegowuk—James Bay by only four votes over Tory challenger Dave Plourde. A mandatory recount will be held there.
Aside from regaining official status, the Liberals could find solace in the fact they will benefit from Ford quietly extended the per-vote subsidies for political parties until the end of next year.
His Tories received 2,158,452 votes in this election with 8,073 of 8,079 polls reporting, up from 1,919,905 in 2022.
That will mean $5.4 million in annual public subsidies for the PCs.
Crombie’s Liberals received 1,504,688 votes, a significant jump from 1,124,065 in 2022.
That will mean $3.8 million in per-vote subsidies.
The New Democrats got 931,796 votes, down from 1,116,383 in 2022.
That means about $2.4 million in subsidies.
The Greens received 242,822 votes, down from 280,006 in 2022.
That means $616,000 in subsidies.
Fair Vote Canada, which advocates for proportional representation instead of the existing first-past-the-post system, said if Ontario rejected the winner-takes-all status quo the legislature would have a different complexion.
“The election results were a gross misrepresentation of what voters said with their ballots,” the group said Friday.
“In an Ontario PR system with a three per cent or four per cent threshold, the results would have been: Progressive Conservative: 55; Ontario Liberal Party: 38; NDP: 24; Green Party of Ontario: 6; Independent: one.”
In a rebuke of Ford’s Tories in Haldimand-Norfolk, Independent Bobbi Ann Brady was re-elected with a stunning 63.65 per cent of the vote, a rebuke of Ford’s Tories, in a once-PC stronghold.
The next Ontario election — provided Ford does not again choose to face voters early — will be held in June 2029.
Elections Ontario said the first winter election since 1981 cost $189 million to run.
