It cost taxpayers an additional $612 million so Premier Doug Ford could expand booze sales in time for his early Feb. 27 election, a fiscal watchdog has found.
In a new report, the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario estimates the liberalization tab will jump to $1.4 billion by the end of 2030 due to lower retail tax revenue for the LCBO, industry subsidies and other market changes.
Of that, ”$817 million relates to the planned expansion of the beverage alcohol marketplace starting on Jan. 1, 2026, and $612 million relates to the decision to accelerate that expansion to begin in 2024,” the independent office said.
The report comes one day before Ford is to visit Lt.-Gov. Edith Dumont for the drawing up of the writs for a campaign that officially begins Wednesday.
A new Abacus Data poll for the Star, conducted between Wednesday and Sunday, found the governing Tories at 47 per cent, ahead of the Liberals at 24 per cent, the NDP at 19 per cent and the Greens at seven per cent.
The early election will cost between $150 million and $175 million and coincides with $200 “rebate” cheques being mailed to 15 million Ontarians. That’s a $3 billion expense for the treasury despite Ontario’s $6.6-billion budget deficit.
Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy’s office said the FAO “report confirms what we’ve been saying from the start, LCBO revenues will increase as it plays an important role as both a retailer and the exclusive wholesaler for all other retailers.”
“Any potential drop in tax revenue is due to our government’s deliberate decisions to reduce markups and remove fees, keeping the cost of beer and wine down for consumers,” said Bethlenfalvy’s spokesman Colin Blachar.
“We were elected twice on a promise to deliver people with more choice and convenience, and to end one of the worst deals in the province’s history that shut out local businesses in favour of large foreign corporations,” said Blachar, adding the opposition Liberals “would rather protect the status quo that favoured big businesses over local convenience stores, and raise taxes and fees on beer and wine.”
While the Progressive Conservative leader first promised liberalization of alcohol sales during the 2018 election, he only managed to keep that pledge last September when beer, wine, cider and premixed cocktails were allowed to be sold in licensed convenience stores.
Most supermarkets and big box outlets were permitted to sell booze as of Oct. 31, although the provincially owned Liquor Control Board of Ontario retains the monopoly on the sale of spirits such as whisky, rum, vodka and gin.
Last May, when Ford first began musing about calling an election well before the scheduled June 2026 vote, the government paid the privately run Beer Store $225 million to break the 10-year ”master framework agreement” former Liberal premier Kathleen Wynne signed in 2015, which allowed wine and six-packs of beer to be sold in 450 supermarkets.
Even though that deal would have ended on Dec. 31, 2025 with minimal cost to taxpayers, Ford scrambled to deliver the promise earlier to give himself the flexibility to call a snap election.
In 2019, he was forced to retreat from an initial bid to unilaterally scrap the Beer Store accord after the United States Chamber of Commerce, the world’s largest business organization, accused his government of “sending a negative signal to U.S. and other international investors about the business and investment climate in Ontario.”
Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie dismissed Ford’s pre-election move as a ”$1-billion booze boondoggle,” and has questioned the need for an early election with U.S. President Donald Trump threatening 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods as of this Saturday.
“Doug Ford has been caught red-handed,” Crombie said at Queen’s Park. “Doug Ford has been lying about the true costs of this ridiculous scheme.”
She added that money would have been better used to ease the doctor shortage or improve schools and suggests Ford, who insists he’s the best person to deal with Trump, is a poor dealmaker.
“Doug Ford has the wrong priorities. Doug Ford has been focused on booze, bike lanes, big spas and his rich buddies, all because he thinks he can distract you with beer and pre-election cheques,” she said.
New Democrat Leader Marit Stiles said the extra cost to push booze into corner stores early for Ford’s own political convenience was a “terrible deal.”
“Doug Ford likes to pretend he’s some great negotiator, and he obviously can’t get a good deal done,” added Stiles, who pledged to remove tolls on Highway 407 if she wins next month’s election. “He rushed it though so that he could get it done before the election.”
Ford has said Trump’s levies are the main reason he is going to the polls early.
But Crombie, Stiles and Green Leader Mike Schreiner say the Tory leader is pulling the plug early to get in front of the RCMP criminal probe of the $8.28-billion Greenbelt land swap scandal.
Ford also hopes to to take advantage of the fact Liberal activists may be too busy on the March 9 federal leadership race to help Crombie’s provincial campaign.
Also, he wanted to go before a federal election expected this spring that public-opinion polls suggest Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre could win.
Because Ontario voters traditionally elect different parties at Queen’s Park and in Ottawa at the same time, a Poilievre victory might be bad for Ford.
