As war continues to rage in the Middle East, gas prices here in Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area are set to soar seven cents overnight to 173.9 cent(s)/litre — levels not seen since April, 2024.
That price projection comes from Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst with En-Pro, who adds that the conflict in Iran is throwing the global energy market into unprecedented territory.
“The changes at the pump are not following any of the rules used by the oil companies in the past,” McKnight told CityNews on Thursday.
“Normally pump prices follow the changes at the wholesale level with a 24-hour delay. This is no longer the case with prices moving outside the parameters of the wholesale price changes.”
You’d have to dig back to April, 2024, to find higher gas prices in Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area — with prices spiking to an even higher 178.9 cent(s)/litre.
The April 2024 spike was attributed to a convergence of factors, including the April 1, 2024 federal carbon tax hike, which added around 3.3 cents per litre across the nation.
Other factors included the transition to more expensive summer gasoline, along with supply concerns and geo-political tensions in the Middle East.
Fast forward to March, 2026 with global oil and gas prices steadily climbing since the United States and Israel launched missile attacks against Iran.
In response, Iran has blocked and attacked some oil shipments along the Strait of Hormuz — a passageway that about 20 per cent of the world’s oil usually passes through.
There’s no telling how long the conflict will last, and even if it were to end tomorrow, one expert recently told CityNews gas prices wouldn’t immediately revert to pre-conflict levels.
“It will take at least a few months for this to work its way through the system before prices start to return to something closer to the pre-conflict pricing,” said Warren Mabee of the Queen’s Institute for Energy and Environmental Policy at Queen’s University.
Mabee says while Canada possesses a robust oil sector, the question of why it’s affecting our prices is simple – we’re a part of a global market.
“When you get into these types of situations where we actually have a constraint on supply that is affecting everybody, it can result in much higher prices much faster.”
With files from Rhianne Campbell
