After clinching their return to the postseason with Sunday’s win over the Kansas City Royals, the Toronto Blue Jays will now turn their focus to winning the AL East and securing a bye to the ALDS.
After both the Blue Jays and New York Yankees won on Sunday, Toronto holds a two-game lead over the Bronx Bombers in the race for the division.
With the Detroit Tigers’ late-season collapse, the Blue Jays remain in a great position to clinch a top-two seed in the American League and advance past the wild-card round. But they can’t officially clinch that spot without winning the AL East first.
With six games remaining on Toronto’s regular-season schedule, here is a look at Toronto’s path to claiming a spot atop the division.
Magic number guide
Baseball’s “magic number” refers to how close a team is to clinching its playoff spot and represents the combined number of wins it needs and losses its closest rival needs to clinch.
MLB.com lists the magic number formula (altered here to include the Blue Jays’ position) as follows:
Blue Jays’ games remaining +1 – (Losses by chasing team – Blue Jays’ losses)
The formula doesn’t account for any tiebreakers, which come down to head-to-head record. Thanks to their dominant play against fellow contenders, the Blue Jays have locked down the tiebreaker over the Yankees and Boston Red Sox.
AL East title magic number: 4
The Yankees (87-68) scored six runs in the 10th inning on Sunday to beat the Baltimore Orioles, but thanks to the Blue Jays’ win in Kansas City, they moved closer to their first division crown since 2015.
The Blue Jays’ magic number to clinch the AL East is down to four. That figure accounts for the tiebreaker they hold over New York, having won the season series 8–5.
So, the Blue Jays would win the AL East if they win and the Yankees lose a total of four games combined.
With both Toronto and New York off Monday, the soonest the Blue Jays could clinch is Wednesday night.
As of Sunday afternoon, FanGraphs projected Toronto with an 86.5-per-cent chance to win the division, compared with 13.2 per cent for the Yankees.
The Red Sox are mathematically still alive in the division race, sitting five games back of the Blue Jays.
Remaining schedule for Blue Jays and Yankees
Blue Jays: 3 vs. Boston, starting Tuesday. 3 vs. Tampa Bay, starting Friday.
Yankees: 3 vs. Chicago White Sox, starting Tuesday. 3 vs. Baltimore, starting Friday.
