How one defection to Mark Carney’s Liberals set off a political earthquake at Queen’s Park

Hours later, Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith — who has long eyed the provincial leadership — announced plans to seek the Liberal party nomination in Begum’s old riding.

“I know the biggest difference I can make is rebuilding our provincial Liberal party to deliver for Ontarians,” Erskine-Smith said.

He did not specifically state that he is running for the provincial Liberals’ top job but, as the party executive meets this weekend to decide the leadership race rules, the immediacy of his announcement appears to flag interest. 

While chatter shifts to names of potential candidates who might compete with Erskine-Smith for the nomination, the provincial New Democrats are reeling from the news that NDP Leader Marit Stiles lost her “trusted” deputy to a new party.

“This is a gut punch for Marit,” said a senior New Democrat member, who spoke confidentially in order to share internal details. “They’re flailing in plain sight. You can’t spin your way out of this and you can’t downplay it. Downplaying it is not a strategy.

“If you are the leader of the opposition or if you’re the government in waiting, you don’t explain defections — you prevent them.”

But another NDP insider said the party had no idea there was a defection to prevent.

For Stiles, the political surprise landed at 9 a.m. on Tuesday.

She was on her way to the Oakville picket site of public service workers when her cell rang.

It was Begum. 

She told Stiles of her decision and Carney’s announcement, planned for 11:30 a.m.

“We did what we could with that time,” said a source, who spoke confidentially to share internal details. “They had conversations. It was pretty clear that the decision had been made and things were rolling ahead. It seems like it was already in motion.”

“It’s difficult and disappointing. Marit trusted her a lot because she was her deputy leader.”

The Liberal statement arrived on schedule. 

“Doly Begum has a strong track record of public service and getting results for her community,” said Sachit Mehra, president of the Liberal Party of Canada. “This is a moment for our country to come together, to bring strong community voices and leaders to the table and deliver the serious leadership Canadians expect and deserve.”

Begum was born in Bangladesh and later attended the University of Toronto. She earned a Master of Arts in development, administration and planning from University College London, considered a prestigious university. She is the first Bangladeshi-Canadian to sit in any legislature in Canada. 

“I’ve had the privilege to earn the trust and fight for the people of Scarborough Southwest for more than seven years as our MPP,” said Begum in a news release.

“I understand the priorities of our community, and at this crucial moment for our country, I believe we must come together to build a stronger, more united, and more prosperous Canada.”

Begum was first elected as an MPP in 2018 and handily won her seat in three elections. 

In the legislature, she sat near interim Liberal leader John Fraser, who took to social media after the announcement, calling her a “very kind, thoughtful, decent person.” 

Some were shocked that Begum, as a member of the left-leaning NDP, has joined a party that Carney has pulled toward the political centre, cancelling the consumer carbon tax, increasing military spending and introducing tough-on-crime legislation.

Others say it shows that the federal Liberals can attract progressives, including Dr. Danielle Martin, chair of the University of Toronto’s family medicine program as their candidate in the race to replace Chrystia Freeland in University-Rosedale. In both ridings, the Liberals skipped a formal nomination process in favour of appointing a candidate. 

“We’re a big tent party,” said Liberal MP Rob Oliphant. “Obviously, we have progressives, we have centrists, we have people who are on the right-wing side. We have a big tent.” 

Begum’s departure means that the NDP has lost an MPP in a key riding in Toronto, a tough blow to the party that had a low approval rating of 18.5 per cent in the recent election. 

It’s a loss that will reverberate.

Initially, Stiles and her staff tried to put a brave face on Begum’s departure. They released a terse statement announcing that Stiles had received Begum’s resignation and wishes her well.

“Our party has been proud to represent the good people of Scarborough Southwest for the past eight years and look forward to continuing that representation,” Stiles said.

Hours later, she emailed party members, confirming Begum’s departure with “deep feeling.”

“This is very difficult news,” Stiles wrote. “I spoke to Doly this morning, when she informed me for the first time. Unfortunately, her mind was made up. She has made this decision for personal reasons. I share your disappointment.”

On Monday, Blair announced his long-rumoured resignation to take up the post as Canada’s high commissioner in the United Kingdom. Scarborough Southwest has been a safe Liberal seat since 2015. Blair, a former Toronto police chief, had won the riding with at least 50 per cent of the vote in the past four elections. 

Carney can call the byelection within 11 days of Blair’s resignation becoming official and has up to 180 days to do so, although senior Liberals have indicated it will likely come soon.

News of Begum’s defection spread fast at Queen’s Park. 

At least one senior New Democrat member said it was not a surprise.

Stiles did not do as well as expected in a leadership review last September, earning 68 per cent approval from her party.

The NDP leader quickly fired her top two staffers, and later hired a new chief of staff who had previously worked in the Manitoba NDP government.

“Leadership, especially since the (NDP) leadership convention is about momentum,” the senior party member said.

“And right now the momentum is flowing to the Liberals now, federally and provincially, so this is a problem, you know, for Marit and her leadership team.”

Still, it was an emotional jolt for others, particularly since Begum had moderated a panel of federal NDP leader contenders in Toronto a few weeks before her ‘floor crossing.’

The federal interim NDP leader Don Davies had strong words for her decision, saying it will erode the public’s faith in politics.

“When Canadians see politicians betray their values and policies that they claim to believe in, I think it damages our democracy and breeds cynicism in our politics,” he said.

Begum, he added, has left the NDP for a party that leans conservative.

“If you look at the policies of the current government since they’ve been elected, they’ve just ripped policy after policy out of the conservative playbook.”

At Queen’s Park, the Liberals’ Fraser took a moment away from extolling Begum’s “kindness” and “very calming influence” to give a blunt assessment of her decision. 

“It’s definitely a blow to the NDP provincially when you lose your deputy leader to another party,” he said. “As for the federal NDP, they’re in a rebuild and it ain’t helping them.”