The Bank of Canada has finally cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5 per cent. — a decision which impacts mortgage rates — after holding steady throughout the summer.
With the busy fall real estate season in full swing, will the announcement be enough to spark the slumping Toronto market? Or is it just one factor among many that would-be buyers are considering?
Victor Tran, a Rates.ca mortgage and real estate expert, said people with variable rate mortgages and lines of credit will see a direct impact.
“Anyone that currently has that type of credit product, we’ll see a little bit of savings. So their rate would drop by a quarter per cent. And for every $100,000 borrowed, a 25-basis-point drop equals about $15 a month.”
The Bank of Canada rate is tied to the prime rate for banks. Currently that’s 4.95 per cent and with the announcement it’s expected to decrease to 4.7 per cent, Tran said.
Those with fixed-rate mortgages will not see a difference in monthly payments. But those considering buying and shopping around fixed rates will see them a bit lower, he added.
Tran doesn’t, however, think there will be a huge immediate impact on Toronto real estate.
“It’s not like it’s suddenly created a buying frenzy,” he said.
There are a lot of other factors at play including the rising unemployment rate — when people are worried about losing their jobs they’re less likely to buy a home.
Return-to-office mandates also mean rising monthly costs and may mean some people aren’t able to buy in the neighbourhoods they were thinking of.
“Inventory and real estate is still piling up, so demand is just simply not there,” he added.
Tran noted rents are coming down a bit in the region, and renting can offer more flexibility.
“I think a lot of younger folks, people in their 20s and 30s, even people in their 40s, that haven’t purchased a home yet are just realizing that it’s not the end of the world if you don’t own a property, it’s OK to rent,” he said.
After historic lows during the pandemic, the central bank hiked interest rates to a high of five per cent in July 2023, before making a series of cuts down to 2.75 in March of this year.
The bank then left the key interest rate unchanged in its last three decisions.
Higher interest rates are one of the factors that experts blame for the drop in housing prices in the GTA — more than 23 per cent in average sales price for all property types since the peak of the market in February 2022.
At its most recent rate announcement in July, the bank cited ongoing economic uncertainty and inflation as reasons for keeping the status quo, but left the door open to future cuts.
Since then there’s been some data released suggesting a softer Canadian economy, which experts attribute to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
In his decision Wednesday, governor Tiff Macklem said there was “clear consensus” from the bank’s governing council due to a weaker economy and less upside risk to inflation.
Patrick Smith, vice-president, real estate secured lending at TD, said the rate cut will make a difference in affordability.
“It’s going to mean lower payments for borrowers that are making a new purchase or have renewals coming up, or if they’re going to refinance for a purchase or renovation or something like that,” he said.
“This provides consumers with reason for optimism and maybe nudges some people off of the sidelines.”
