OTTAWA—Is it déjà vu all over again?
That’s a loaded question for the half dozen Liberal MPs who were part of the doomed Kathleen Wynne government that lost to Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives in 2018 and now sit in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s federal caucus facing Pierre Poilievre’s surging Conservatives.
Two of those veteran politicians wouldn’t touch it with a 10-foot pole, their silence a telling indication of where things appear to be headed and how history could repeat itself.
Their more (self-described) “optimistic” colleagues prefer to emphasize — not the similarities of the electoral scenarios — but the differences between Queen’s Park in 2018 and Ottawa now.
Of the six politicians now in the Commons, only two were able to hang onto their provincial seats in 2018 when the Ford juggernaut reduced an almost 15-year Ontario Liberal dynasty to a tiny rump without official party status in the legislature: community and social services minister Michael Coteau and solicitor general Marie-France Lalonde.
Charles Sousa, who had been finance minister, lost his seat as did attorney-general Yasir Naqvi, health minister Helena Jaczek, and Etobicoke Centre MPP Yvan Baker.
Jaczek — who sources said had been outspoken in Wynne’s cabinet in the year leading up to the 2018 Liberal defeat and warned about the premier’s unpopularity at the doorsteps due to soaring electricity bills — politely declined to comment when asked to reflect on what this period in federal politics feels like.
Jaczek was dropped from Trudeau’s cabinet last summer after announcing she will not seek re-election in Markham-Stouffville whenever the next federal election is held.
Baker declined to weigh in, too.
But Coteau, Sousa, Naqvi and Lalonde insist the federal Liberals are not doomed to the same fate as the provincial party, stressing Trudeau is an effective campaigner and they still have time to turn things around.
In an interview, Coteau, who was one of Wynne’s top ministers, said the comparisons between the former premier and the prime minister miss the mark.
“The players are different, the personalities are different, the time is different,” he said, noting provincial and national issues also differ.
However, there is one key similarity, he said. After a certain time, all governments accumulate “challenges.”
With Wynne — who had revived the provincial Grits after succeeding Dalton McGuinty in 2013 and won a surprise majority victory the following year — her predecessor’s decision to cancel two gas-fired power plants in Oakville and Mississauga before the 2011 election ultimately hurt her in 2018, despite what her ex-cabinet colleagues say was a good governing record.
For Coteau, the weight of 15 years of Liberal rule bedevilled Wynne’s second election bid from the get-go.
“A narrative hardened, and it was hard to change the talking points even when you did good things,” said Coteau, pointing to Sousa’s feat under Wynne of a balanced budget in 2017.
In contrast, he argued that the animosity to Trudeau is not so baked in that it can’t be overcome with time, economic improvements, a good platform, and a strong campaign.
“I’m not saying the world is all rosy, but I think that the cement hasn’t dried fully in regards to where Canadians want to go, what they’re thinking about. I think there’s still the ability to have a discussion,” about “an alternative to the Pierre Poilievre approach,” said Coteau, whose Don Valley East seat is disappearing in redistribution so he will be running in neighbouring Scarborough-Woburn.
Two of his former Ontario cabinet colleagues, not now in Ottawa, said they feel the antipathy toward Trudeau mirrors what they heard about Wynne six years.
“It may even be worse. You see these ‘F—- Trudeau’ signs everywhere; there were never ‘F—- Wynne’ signs and flags on people’s trucks. People were mad at Kathleen about their hydro bills, but now it’s unhinged toward the PM,” said one ex-provincial minister who spoke on condition they not be named.
Another, whom the Star agreed not to identify so they could freely discuss internal deliberations, said the federal Liberals should be thinking of doing what the provincial Grits regret not doing: saving the furniture by switching leaders instead of allowing everyone to go down with the ship.
“Even if (Wynne) had stepped down (in 2017), we would have lost, but we wouldn’t have gone down to seven or eight seats,” said the retired second former minister. “We could have lived to fight another day. The OLP didn’t do that; the LPC still could.”
Wynne told the Star this summer the decision by a political leader to stay or go is a bruising and deeply personal one, and advised Trudeau to contemplate why he wanted to stay.
Naqvi said in an interview the federal Liberals’ nine years in office is a big reason why “we are behind in the polls,” but added, “I don’t think it’s lost.”
“The next little bit matters a lot. The campaign matters a lot. I ran in 2011. It was my second election. I ran in 2018. Even in talking to people at the door, to me it feels more like 2011 than 2018,” he said, referring to the McGuinty Liberals’ third consecutive election victory.
By then, the premier had been in power eight years compared to Trudeau’s nine.
McGuinty had weathered the 2008 economic crisis and recession and had brought in policies that Naqvi emphasized were good for the province — like the harmonized sales tax — but were “not popular” because some prices went up.
“We were able to pull that campaign and win that election, a minority government, by one seat,” he said, referring to the Liberals winning 53 seats in what was then a 107-member legislature.
Debilitated by the gas-plants scandal, his popularity plummeting, McGuinty prorogued the legislature in October 2012 and resigned as leader, triggering the leadership race won by Wynne three months later.
Naqvi conceded he does hear similar comments at the door now as he heard when campaigning under McGuinty, when voters said “we love how you’re doing but I think maybe it’s time for you to change the leader.”
Back then and now, Naqvi said, he shifts the focus onto the Liberals’ opponent, insisting that in Ottawa Centre voters at the door are turned off by the Conservative leader.
As Ontario Liberal president, Naqvi oversaw the expedited leadership contest that replaced McGuinty. He said the federal party needs to do three things to turn the ship around: draw a clear contrast and show “how dangerous Poilievre is for the country”; produce a policy prescription on affordability that shows people “we get it,” and “articulate a vision for the future.”
Sousa said in an interview he sees “similarities” in that Ontario voters in 2018 faced a flood of “misinformation” in Conservative partisan rhetoric, including from groups like Canada Proud and Ontario Proud. Sousa argued Poilievre and his supporters are following the same playbook, “creating fear, division and promoting some of the hate that exists, especially in the toxic nature or the anonymity that exists, through social media. It feeds the beast.”
He believes another “similarity” is that Poilievre, like Ford, cannot be trusted to leave social programs intact despite his pre-writ rhetoric. That is part of what Sousa said motivates him to run again despite the dismal poll showings for Trudeau. Sousa cited other personal priorities — to boost economic growth, protect national unity, and ensure Canada’s voice is heard on the world stage — and why he believes there is a path to win under Trudeau.
“The prime minister is very competitive. He realizes that things could be in jeopardy — some of the programs have been put in place. And I believe he is trying to do what’s best for the benefit of others, whereas Poilievre is using some of these issues as a platform to benefit himself.”
Lalonde, in an interview, said she is “100 per cent” behind Trudeau and doesn’t think there are parallels to be drawn between Wynne circa 2018 and Trudeau now.
“I don’t think it’s fair,” she said. “For me, it’s not about the polls. For me, it’s about the delivery. My government wants to continue to support Canadians,” she said. She intends to focus on the needs of her riding, but says she is not running a “local campaign. I’m fighting Pierre Poilievre.”
All campaigns, she added, are “tough.” In 2014, “no one thought I was going to win … I won in 2018 … And you know, (the) campaign matters.”
