A revolt is brewing.
New Brunswick MP Wayne Long has openly called for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to resign, penning a letter to caucus members Friday afternoon, the Star has learned.
“Colleagues, after reflecting on this week’s defeat in Toronto—St Paul’s and then seeing the response, I want you to know clearly and directly where I stand,” he wrote.
“For the future of our party and for the good of our country we need new leadership and a new direction. The voters have spoken loud and clear they want change. I agree.”
I’m told more than a handful of MPs were ready to sign Long’s letter. It was understood it would leak to the media, and start a national conversation.
But many MPs who feel the same way Long does weren’t ready to put their necks on the line in such a public fashion.
“A majority, if not the vast majority, of caucus want to see the prime minister step down,” an Ontario Liberal MP told me Friday.
The list includes names that are part of Trudeau’s team, who for their own career advancement don’t want to be identified as backstabbers, be demoted or be prevented from running under the Liberal banner again. Long, the MP for Saint John-Rothesay, previously announced he wasn’t running again.
I did not call 155 MPs. I can’t tell you if it’s a majority of caucus, but I can tell you many, many MPs feel this way.
Within caucus, it’s being referred to as “the most difficult moment” for the Liberal party since the loss of 2011, when then-leader Michael Ignatieff plunged the party to third place with 19 per cent of the vote. Trudeau, according to public opinion polls, is only three points away from that result.
They feel the only solution is for Trudeau to go.
That is one group.
The other group within caucus wants to see drastic change. Several feel the prime minister should have resigned last summer but that it is now too late to change leaders.
The Liberals have a minority in Parliament. Any of the opposition parties could bring forward a non-confidence motion this fall when Parliament returns. The NDP could withhold support for the fall economic statement. The country could go into a Christmas-time election. Even if the NDP supports that confidence vote, another would be scheduled for the spring when the budget is tabled.
Even if Trudeau resigned next week, and a leadership vote was called for mid to late fall, that’s a tight timetable to make a new leader election-ready. Another problem is a leadership race would be divisive for the party with the war in Gaza looming in the background.
This group of MPs want to see a big shake up.
Trudeau — who wants to hang on — seemed to be contemplating such a move.
Sources say he and former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney have spoken at least twice, prior to Monday’s byelection. They’ve discussed Carney joining the team as finance minister. Carney’s presence would provide the government with new energy. It could signal a new policy direction, and may help stop some of the bleeding of Liberal votes, enticing Liberals to come back to the fold. And with the prime minister desperate for a lifeline, Carney can easily dictate the terms of his participation.
But does he want to help set the policy direction for a government whose lifespan is unknown? Is it better for him to build support for a future leadership run from inside caucus or would he be better off waiting and seeing whether the push to get rid of Trudeau has legs?
If Carney waits it out, can Trudeau entice any big-name outsiders to join his team?
Many MPs want to see wholesale changes in cabinet. At the top of their list of ministers they want dumped is Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland. Other names on an Ontario list passed around include: National Revenue Minister Marie-Claude Bibeau, Minister of Citizens’ Services Terry Beech, Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault, Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault, Emergency Preparedness Harjit Sajjan, Mental Health and Addictions Minister Ya’ara Saks, and Agriculture Minister Lawrence MacAulay.
Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly also comes up, but in the context of being moved to another position.
Some of the people who want a big shuffle feel the prime minister is still surrounded by his 2015 team, and that there are smart, young MPs anxious to step up, and prove they can put a fresh face on a tired government.
But for the first group, who want Trudeau to go, they feel any changes — even big changes — will be seen as superficial.
The problem they see, the problem they hear over and over at the doorstep, is with the leader. No amount of changes to the supporting cast can fix the trouble with the main lead. Canadians have tuned out what the prime minister is saying. Whatever good work the Liberals do, no one wants to listen.
The other person who isn’t listening is the prime minister. I could find no MP who could tell me they had spoken to Trudeau directly. His chief of staff, cabinet ministers, and caucus chairs are all sussing out the mood of the Liberal team, but the prime minister — not one to talk to his MPs in regular times — doesn’t appear to have picked up the phone to gauge the mood of MPs after Monday’s byelection loss. Now, Long has forced a conversation the prime minister hoped to escape.
