Mark Carney is expected to ask the governor general to dissolve Canada’s parliament and drop the writs around midday today. Follow along for live updates and analysis from our reporters in Ottawa.
Here’s the latest:
12:17 p.m. How the fight over an emissions cap is shaping up between Carney and Poilievre
One thing to watch for in this campaign is how the debate plays out over climate change. Poilievre, in his campaign launch speech, highlighted how he is going to dismantle the entire national carbon pricing regime, which includes an industrial price and the consumer tax-and-rebate scheme. Since the Liberals are only scrapping the consumer price, this difference allows Poilievre to continue with his “axe the tax” mantra.
It will be interesting to see how much pressure he faces, however, in showing how he would still reduce Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions. The Canadian Climate Institute estimated last year that industrial pricing will be responsible for up to almost half the expected emissions reductions by 2030, so it’s a huge piece of Canada’s efforts to help avoid the worst extremes of climate change.
Poilievre has not yet said exactly how, and to what level, a Conservative government would reduce national emissions.
-Alex Ballingall
On Friday, Carney finally clarified that he would maintain an emissions cap on oil and gas, but says that it is not a production cap. In fact, he says he’ll accelerate approvals of energy pipelines. And he declared he’d view carbon capture and storage systems as big nation-building projects worthy of expedited approvals. Whether he would plow public money into them remains to be seen.
But Carney and Poilievre are each proposing accelerated approvals and development of energy sources to get more Canadian energy to other markets, and to reduce reliance on U.S. refined fuel imports here.
-Tonda MacCharles
12:16 p.m. Poilievre en route to Carleton campaign stop
Poilievre is now headed to another campaign launch event in his Ottawa-area riding of Carleton. It’s worth noting that the riding Poilievre now represents used to include parts of the neighbouring Nepean riding where the Liberals’ Mark Carney is now running.
-Raisa Patel
12 p.m. Conservative leader tweaks his messaging — but not his policies
So much of Poilievre’s message is now about Trump, but a lot of his policies are consistent from before Trump became the president. He wants to “ax” the entire carbon pricing regime, and he’s still hammering at the Liberals over increased cost of living under their watch as government since 2015. He argues the Liberals’ economic mismanagement has left Canada vulnerable to the American threats we are now seeing.
-Alex Ballingall
Poilievre is hammering the message that Canada is “weak” after a decade of Liberal rule. But notably, he has not said “Canada is broken.”
He has dropped that phrase altogether.
-Tonda MacCharles
11:55 a.m. Poilievre still wants to ‘axe the tax’
Much attention has been paid to whether Poilievre will stick with his “axe the tax” messaging in this election — and how strongly. The Liberals under Mark Carney have already scrapped the federal consumer carbon price, but not the industrial price on heavy emitters.
At his news conference today, Poilievre said his vision for Canada starts with “axing the carbon tax — the entire tax.”
-Raisa Patel
11:52 a.m. Carney reaches Rideau Hall
PM Mark Carney has apparently entered Rideau Hall via the back door.
We didn’t see him go in, but we are told he is inside meeting with the GG now.
-Tonda MacCharles
11:50 a.m. Poilievre slams Liberal leadership, addresses tariff threats
With Parliament Hill in the background, Poilievre says he will “restore Canada’s promise” in light of the Liberals seeking a fourth term in power after “swapping” Justin Trudeau for Mark Carney.
“It is time to put Canada first for a change with a Conservative government,” Poilievre said.
The Conservative leader is focusing much of his opening remarks on the threats posed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
“This country has given me everything I have. I know my story wouldn’t have been possible in any other country in the world. I was born to a 16-year-old single mother who put me up for adoption to two school teachers. But they taught me that in Canada, despite humble beginnings, I could achieve anything I wanted.”
-Raisa Patel
11:35 a.m. Conservatives unveil new slogan as Poilievre launches campaign
Pierre Poilievre has debuted a new slogan: “Canada first for a change.” This is a slogan that the Conservatives hope will address the Trump threat while also trying to wrestle the ballot question back to a question about change.
-Althia Raj
-Mark Ramzy
11:26 a.m. Poilievre speaks to media at the Canadian Museum of History
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is moments away from making his first public comments of the day at the Canadian Museum of History in Gatineau, Que. The last Conservative prime minister, Stephen Harper, gave the institution its current name: it used to be known as the Canadian Museum of Civilization.
The idea behind the rebranding at the time echoes the Conservatives’ “Canada first” messaging that we will see throughout this campaign. For Canada’s 150th anniversary, Harper wanted the major cultural institution to tell the story of Canada and Canada alone, despite opposition criticisms that he was revamping the museum to showcase history that better aligned with Conservative values.
-Althia Raj
11:22 a.m. Will federal parties pay for a head-to-head French debate?
In Quebec, there is a bit of a controversy over the TVA debate. The private broadcaster has been organizing its own debate, in addition to the consortium debate.
But this year, they have asked the parties $75,000 to participate. The Bloc Québécois says it will pay the money. The Liberals say they have made no decision yet. Carney’s French is not good — but behind the scenes, there is concern about the precedent of paying an outlet to join a debate.
-Althia Raj
11:10 a.m. Canadian Conservatives are desperate for Trump to come to their rescue: Stephen Maher
An election that will be fought about the sovereignty of Canada is beginning with news that one of Canada’s most prominent conservative leaders asked Donald Trump’s government to interfere.
In an interview with U.S. conservative outlet Breitbart earlier this month, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said that she told Trump officials that Pierre Poilievre would be a better PM for Trump.
Just two months ago, Poilievre was measuring the drapes in the PMO, acting high-handed with stakeholder groups and belittling junior reporters in news conferences. But after two years with a 20-point lead, he is suddenly trailing Mark Carney in every poll.
Read the full column here from Stephen Maher.
10:54 Liberals tap Mike Myers for ‘elbows up’ campaign ad
Readers may have seen the new “elbows up” election ad from the Liberals, which features Mark Carney and comedian Mike Myers. Liberal spokesperson Guillaume Bertrand tells me it came together after Myers reached out to Carney. Myers also came up with the video concept and then drove up to Montreal from Vermont to film it. Bertrand says the video got 6.5 million views in 14 hours, as of 830 am today, across X, Instagram and YouTube.
It’s one example of how the parties will try and harness the fixation — and anxieties — over Donald Trump’s economic aggression and annexation threats to their advantage in the coming campaign.
– Alex Ballingall
10:25 a.m. No sign of Carney yet at Rideau Hall
This is the scene at Rideau Hall where Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to come meet the Governor General Mary Simon to request the dissolution of Parliament to trigger an election.
Mostly it is just media, RCMP, and staffers here.
There’s no sign of Carney yet.
-Tonda MacCharles
10:13 a.m. Liberals surge in the polls with campaign season about to kick into high gear
It’s going to be quite a campaign. Polls show the political landscape has transformed since Trudeau announced he would leave, way back on Jan. 6.
Since then, the Liberals have shot up in the polls, threatening to stave off a Conservative victory that seemed all but certain just a few months ago.
Now we have in Mark Carney an untested, rookie politician who has never been elected at any level, squaring off against a lifelong politician in Pierre Poilievre whose whole career has led to a moment where he will make history as the next prime minister or become a footnote in the broader story of Canada. The NDP’s Jagmeet Singh is in his third campaign as leader, trying to recover from a spate of bad polls for his party and remain a force on the federal stage. And the Greens are trying a new tack with a co-leadership model featuring Elizabeth May and newcomer Jonathan Pedneault.
And all this will play out under Donald Trump’s imperious eye, as the U.S. president engages in a trade war against Canada, all while denigrating and questioning this country’s very right to exist.
-Alex Ballingall
10 a.m. Althia Raj: Pierre Poilievre is a victim of his own success — but don’t expect him to go down without a fight
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre heads into the election campaign he’s long demanded on Sunday fighting for his political life, a victim of his own success facing a remarkable change of circumstances.
Poilievre spent two years fomenting anger against Justin Trudeau, blaming him for everything from the opioid crisis to crimes on Toronto’s subway to inflation, pinning the blame on the Liberal leader’s spending and his “carbon tax.”
Poilievre was so successful in prosecuting the case against Trudeau that his actions spurred a Liberal MP rebellion, Chrystia Freeland’s public resignation and, ultimately, Trudeau’s departure — a move many Conservatives believed he would never make.
Read the full column here from Althia Raj.
10 a.m. Editorial Board: Danielle Smith undermines the national interest
There is never a good time to threaten an “unprecedented” national unity crisis, but there are times when such a threat is particularly damaging. Like now. But that hasn’t stopped Alberta Premier Danielle Smith from looking inward and issuing such threats, even when we are under siege from an American president who is bent on sowing chaos and anxiety in our country.
Smith likes to play the scrapper, the feisty pro-Alberta premier ready to take on the evil Liberals of Ottawa at every turn. She is, of course, right to try to defend her province, but surely not by undermining the national interest.
Read the full editorial here.
9:22 a.m. Pierre Poilievre more aligned with the Trump White House, says Alberta’s premier
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre will hold a news conference at 11:30 ET where he will no doubt be asked about Danielle Smith’s comments in a Breitbart interview. She said she asked her contacts in the White House administration to pause the tariffs coming on Canada to avoid helping the Liberals.
She also described Poilievre as more aligned with the White House.
“So I would think that there’d be, there’s probably still always going to be areas that are skirmishes or disputes about particular industries when it comes to the border, but I would say, on balance, the perspective that Pierre would bring would be very much in sync with, I think…the new direction in America,” she added.
Smith referred to Poilievre drive’s to push for more resource development, low taxes and said he “doesn’t believe in any of the woke stuff that we’ve seen taking over our politics for the last five years.”
-Althia Raj
9:14 a.m. When will Mark Carney call the snap election?
Mark Carney is expected to attend a church service and then head over to the governor general at noon ET to ask for Parliament to be dissolved and the writs to be written, plunging the country into the 45th general election.
– Althia Raj
7:20 a.m.: Redrawn ridings could give Conservatives an advantage, say pollsters
Canadians across the country will be voting in new ridings in the coming election.
Pollsters say that the updated districts could give the Conservatives a slight advantage in the race, though the boundary changes shouldn’t affect the election’s overall results.
The country has added five new ridings, bringing the total to 343.
Many ridings saw their boundaries changed and some, including one in Toronto, were eliminated completely. Of the 338 old ridings, only 48 remain unchanged.
More here from the Canadian Press.
Carney to run in Ottawa-area riding
Newcomer Liberal Leader Mark Carney will run to represent the suburban Ottawa riding of Nepean, previously represented by Liberal MP Chandra Arya who was disqualified as unfit in the leadership race to replace Justin Trudeau and whose candidacy for re-election was rejected by the party.
Read the full story from Ottawa Bureau Chief Tonda MacCharles
Election slated for April 28
Sources confirmed to the Star that voters will cast a ballot on Monday, April 28, marking the end of what will be a 37-day campaign, one day longer than the minimum required by law. The number of federal ridings increases to 343 from 338 due to the redrawing of electoral boundaries.
Here’s more from MacCharles
A guide to the biggest storylines this federal election campaign
Just months ago, the outcome of Canada’s 45th general election campaign seemed cushioned in certainty.
But before it even started, the return of a U.S. president and the departure of a Canadian prime minister changed the game.
The Liberals hastily orchestrated a revival and reversed their tanking fortunes.
The Conservatives wrestled with message discipline in the face of a rapidly diminishing lead.
The New Democrats found themselves cast in the shadow of a gripping two-way race.
And amid it all, the Greens prepared to enter a national contest with two leaders, instead of a deeply embattled one.
Here’s what’s at stake for Canada’s federal parties as a monumental campaign begins.
Canada’s election security task force expected to be more vocal about possible foreign interference
A group of senior government bureaucrats tasked with warning the Canadian public about possible foreign interference during an election may be more vocal and less secretive in the upcoming campaign.
The Security Intelligence Threats to Elections Task Force has been in place since the 2019 federal election and gathers the country’s national security agencies together to focus on identifying potential foreign interference.
The task force reports to what is called the “panel of five,” which includes the clerk of the Privy Council, the prime minister’s national security adviser and the deputy ministers of justice, foreign affairs and public safety. It’s these senior government officials who decide whether to go public with a warning to Canadians about possible interference, but they have used a high standard in past campaigns and only made public statements if they believe something “threatens Canada’s ability to have a free and fair election.”
Despite concerns about potential interference in individual ridings in the 2021 election, the panel never went public with any concerns in either that campaign or the 2019 race.
But a new guidance document from Privy Council clerk John Hannaford argues they may have to be more vocal this time. Hannaford wrote the new proposal in January and it opens up the possibility of more announcements.
Here’s more from Ryan Tumilty
Analysis: Why Canadians must brace for U.S. interference
There was once an American president who loved tariffs, sought to negotiate the lay of the Canada-U.S. border and had a beef about the influx of illegal migrants entering from up north.
That president’s name was not Donald Trump but Benjamin Harrison. And in 1891, his country cast a cloud over the Canadian vote that elected Prime Minister John A. Macdonald to his sixth and final political victory, just months before his death.
It was a campaign dominated by trade policy. The ballot question: to impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S., as the Conservative leader urged, or to seek free trade, as Liberal Wilfrid Laurier was pitching.
Macdonald warned that his opponent was opening the door to American annexation. The election, he said, would resolve “the crisis of Canada’s fate” and show Americans that “we would fight for our existence as they would.”
The re-election of Macdonald’s party was summed up elegantly in a biography of the Tory leader by the late Toronto Star journalist Richard Gwyn. Canadians, he wrote “voted to go on being Canadians.”
And from Washington, Harrison reacted in a manner that will be frighteningly familiar to those of us who hang on Trump’s every Canada-focused utterance: “Canada,” Gwyn cited him as saying, “can offer us nothing we cannot duplicate.”
With this country set for an election campaign to begin on Sunday, it’s a cross-border crisis, fight and decision Canadians will be forced to confront once again, 134 years later.
And, once again, the whims and will of Washington loom over Canadian politics. But this time there are much greater abilities to sway or swing the outcome.
Read the full story from Alan Woods
Trump claims he ‘totally changed’ the fortunes of Carney’s Liberal party
President Donald Trump claimed Friday that he “totally changed” Canada’s political landscape ahead of the coming federal election — one that will play out against the backdrop of American economic aggression and Trump’s repeatedly stated desire to annex the country.
In his latest foray into Canadian affairs, Trump took credit for the resurrection of the federal Liberal party’s electoral fortunes, days before Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to trigger a snap national campaign that all parties were buzzing Friday to prepare for in Ottawa.
“Just a little while ago, before I got involved and totally changed the election — which I don’t care about … the Conservative was leading,” Trump told reporters Friday at the White House.
Carney later clapped back at Trump, saying Canadians will decide who the next government will be, and any trade talks will only come after the president shows respect for Canada’s sovereignty.
“Canadians are going to decide who their next government is going to be,” he said late Friday. “I trust Canadians to make those decisions. We’ll have, I’m sure, a robust election campaign and Canadians will make the choice. No foreign leader is going to determine who’s best.”
Read more Tonda MacCharles, Alex Ballingall and Raisa Patel
Carney, premiers seeking plan for national energy, trade corridor
Mark Carney says he and the country’s premiers agreed today to work on a plan to develop a national trade and energy corridor.
He says after some discussions about the response to the tariffs directly, the premiers turned their sights on “nation building” to build things faster than ever before.
That includes finding ways to better move energy and critical minerals and improve digital connectivity.
The first ministers also talked about moving quickly to eliminate trade barriers between provinces and with the federal government.
Read the full story from the Canadian Press
Top parties gear up for Sunday election call
At a Friday morning news conference in Ottawa, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre made a campaign-style announcement about boosting training and employment for workers in the skilled trades.
He also took the opportunity to claim Carney wouldn’t be able to stand up to Trump as well as he could, and vowed to “unleash the great Canadian promise.”
“The choice in the next election is very clear,” he said in front of an audience of local construction union members.
Carney made an announcement of his own later in the afternoon, confirming his government won’t move ahead with a hike to the inclusion rate on capital gains that was first pitched by the Liberals in the federal budget last year.
That tax change drew sharp criticism from some tech leaders and professional groups at the time, but enabling legislation was never passed. Carney said dropping the change will encourage business owners to take risks.
The NDP hosted media on Friday for the launch of its campaign headquarters in Ottawa and unveiled its slogan for the upcoming race: “In it for you.” It’s the same slogan the party used in the 2019 federal election.
Here’s more from the Canadian Press
Ford says his ‘absolutely swamped’ MPPs won’t have time to campaign for Poilievre
Asked at the first ministers’ meeting in Ottawa on Friday if he would “let your MPPs campaign with Mr. Poilievre,” Ford did not mince words.
“I want to make sure our MPPs are fulfilling our mandate. We are going to be absolutely swamped,” said the premier, whose Tories were re-elected Feb. 27.
“Let’s focus on Ontario. That’s our main objective,” he said when pressed about any role his team would have in the federal election that is expected to begin Sunday.
“I’m not going to help anyone. That’s not my job. My job is to keep Ontario moving forward.”
Read the full story from Robert Benzie
Carney’s Liberals would win a majority government if election was held today, poll aggregator says
According to the Signal, the Star’s election predictor, Carney would win a majority of seats in the House of Commons if an election were held today.
“These are … pull-the-trigger type of numbers in terms of an election campaign,” said Clifton van der Linden, a McMaster University political science professor and the CEO of Vox Pop Labs, the independent research organization that developed the Signal, an online tool that gathers polling information from across Canada and aggregates the results using a supercomputer.
On Thursday, the Signal had Carney’s Liberals at 40.8 per cent support and on track to win 182 seats in the House of Commons.
That compared to 37.6 per cent and 134 seats for Poilievre’s Tories.
Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats were at 8.6 per cent and seven seats while Yves-François Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois was at 6.3 per cent and 20 seats and the Greens were at one per cent and no seats.
Learn more from Robert Benzie
