Mark Carney's challenge will be finding shared goals for G7 leaders

So the Canada-hosted meeting of leading western democratic economies, along with other major and “middle power” players, is suddenly a more potentially fraught one.

Israel’s targeted strikes on Iran Thursday, Iran’s retaliatory bombings Friday, warnings from the U.S. and calls for immediate de-escalation, including by Canada, are just the latest alarming developments. Russia’s vow to retaliate for Ukraine’s successful drone strikes on its air fleet, as Trump attempts to drive a U.S.-led negotiated deal, are another. “Russia is simply lying to Trump,” said Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy this week, ahead of his arrival in Kananaskis, Alta. Then there are Trump’s global tariffs that the World Bank says is a drag on the world’s economic growth.

Prime Minister Mark Carney as G7 host faces a massive challenge to find common ground for the Group of Seven leaders to emerge with any consensus on the burning issues of our time.

He’s already ditched expectations of a single joint communiqué out of concern it could be upended unexpectedly, as happened last time Canada hosted the G7 and Trump stomped all over it. 

Navigating heightened geopolitical tensions at this moment is harder than it looks.

South Africa, which hosts the G20 later this year, says Canada must show leadership at what is “a very precarious time,” and seek “sufficient consensus” — not unanimity — to drive action to resolve the major conflicts, according to its top envoy to Canada.

“Can the G7 meet and ignore the fact that we are on the brink of a nuclear war? I mean, what then would be the purpose of the G7” asked South African High Commissioner to Canada Rieaz Shaik, who hopes there will be strong declarations that result.

He said unilateral actions that violated rules and were met by “impunity” from the multilateral systems and institutions meant to address them are the source of most of the world’s current conflicts, pointing to the Russia-Ukraine war, and the U.S.-led tariff war, with the Israel-Iran eruptions the most immediate threat.

“Now is the time for enormous shuttle diplomacy between countries,” Shaik said.

“Under Carney,” he added, “there’s a unique opportunity, there’s a unique moment for middle powers to come together to create a strong enough alliance to build sufficient consensus. And that is why we are here, why we have come to this G7.”

A senior Canadian official, who gave a background-only briefing to reporters, said the G7 is a group where consensus is essential to its functioning.

That’s why sources have told the Star Carney is aiming for a short crisp chair’s statement, and possibly summaries of other sessions. However, as of Thursday, only one — on fighting wildfires — seemed achievable, while another G7 source said days ago there was no declaration yet in the works on Ukraine.

A lot of hard work will also be done in bilateral meetings — and as of Friday, the PMO said Carney will try to meet as many leaders as possible on the sidelines. But no trilateral meeting between Trump, Carney and Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum was yet scheduled.

Before the Israel-Iran explosion of violence, war between Russia and Ukraine was identified by many of the G7 countries which include the U.S, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan, and EU leaders, as their top priority.

British High Commissioner to Canada Rob Tinline in an interview said “The G7 has driven action in support of Ukraine, put pressure on Russia and it will be important that that continues and obviously the presence, the fact Ukraine is there, is important symbolically but also in substance.”

German Ambassador Matthias Lüttenberg said “the key message, as always in G7 summits, is a message of unity, so that we will manage to leave this summit and saying yes, we have agreed, be it statements or be it — I don’t know what sort of agreements — but that would be a success.

“We have so many challenges right now, not only as the G7 but worldwide, and we have the responsibility of the G7 to give some answers to these most pressing challenges,” said Lüttenberg. 

“Success, to me would be unity, if we manage to find a common response to the Russian challenge.”

“Everybody knows today is almost the turning point of history,” said Japanese Ambassador Kanji Yamanouchi, listing Ukraine, Middle East, and global economic and environmental issues as critical for the G7. Japan’s turn hosting the G7 two years ago focused a lot on the need for multilateral co-operation on harnessing critical minerals, artificial intelligence and quantum computing to tackle major problems, including national security, and Yamanouchi says the G7 can focus on the “pros and cons, the light and the shadows” of emerging technologies to “not regulate, but to set guidance” for the world.

“Candid opinion and frank discussion, I think that is the only way to reach to the middle ground where all those G7 countries can agree or can work together. And I think the key word is unity and solidarity of G7 and we need to show it to the world,” he said.

Unity may be desirable, but it’s not necessarily achievable.

G7 foreign ministers had in March jointly reaffirmed “unwavering support for Ukraine in defending its territorial integrity and right to exist, and its freedom, sovereignty and independence” and backed calls for Russia to agree on an immediate and enforceable ceasefire.

But they only “discussed” further sanctions if Russia did not agree, including caps on oil prices, and more support for Ukraine including “the use of extraordinary revenues stemming from immobilized Russian sovereign assets.” Canada has strongly advocated for Russian assets to be not just frozen, but seized and turned over to Ukraine.

That’s a bridge too far for some. Countries like France and Germany, for example, do not have the legal means to do so.

Tinline, Britain’s envoy, said it’s “quite a complicated legal picture. The powers that we’ve got have increased. In terms of action against Russia, we have expanded the powers that we’ve had in terms of sanctions, in terms of freezing and seizing assets over the years,” but he added “it’s a new territory where all of the G7 need to work together to try and kind of, you know, within each of our legal systems to develop.”

South Africa’s envoy to Canada says at this point, those discussions amount to tinkering around the edges of what’s needed, which is a “concerted effort to get Russia and Ukraine to the table to genuinely end this war.”

Days ago, Carney laid out the case for Canada to swiftly ramp up annual military spending to meet its NATO targets in a speech that suddenly looks more like a curtain-raiser on what he’s likely to underscore in G7.

“Threats from a more dangerous and divided world are unravelling the rules-based international order — an order fused by the settlements at the ends of the Second World War and the Cold War — an order on which Canada has relied for longer than most of our lifetimes.”

The consequences of that are “profound,” said Carney, but he argued that Canada can work toward new international partnerships “that are more secure, prosperous, just, and free” and pursue “deeper alliances with stable democracies who share our interests, values, principles, and history.”

“And we can help create a new era of integration between like-minded partners that maximizes mutual support over mutual dependency — a new system of co-operation that promotes greater resilience, rather than merely greater efficiency.”

With that ambitious goal in mind, and on top of the G7 members, Carney will host the heads of the UN, NATO and the World Bank, along with Brazil, South Africa, India, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Ukraine, Mexico and Australia.