“We’d have to find other solutions and all options are on the table,” Sutcliffe says.
OC Transpo service cuts, another fare increase, pulling money from the City of Ottawa’s rainy-day reserves, even a special transit levy on top of one agreed to in the 2025 budget are all on the table if the city doesn’t get the $36 million from “higher levels of government” it’s counting on.
And, with no mention of transit money for Ottawa in the Liberals’ fall economic statement and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government seemingly on the verge of collapse, time is running out on Mayor Mark Sutcliffe’s “Fairness for Ottawa” campaign.
“I think there’s a willingness by the federal government to help us,” Sutcliffe said Friday, a few hours after NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said he would call for a non-confidence vote when Parliament returned in the new year.
“Things are moving in the right direction and we’ve travelled a long way down the road and we’re very close to the finish line of being able to announce some help for Ottawa, but the political volatility right now on Parliament Hill is my main concern,” Sutcliffe said.
“I hope we’re able to move forward on something before that gets in the way, before we’re into an election campaign or a leadership race or some other thing that would prevent the announcement from happening.”
OC Transpo is facing a $120-million operating deficit in 2025. Fares are going up five per cent on Jan. 1 and an increase in the transit levy accounts for more than one-third of the 3.9-per-cent tax increase residents face next year. Even so, the city has added the $36-million placeholder in the transit budget for money it hopes to receive from the provincial and federal governments to balance its books.
Evening Update
Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy confirmed earlier in December that the province would pitch in money for transit if the federal government did so as well. But, despite months of lobbying by the mayor, there has been no federal announcement.
Instead, the Liberals’ fall economic statement committed money for more studies of a sixth bridge over the Ottawa River and a proposed tramway linking Aylmer and Gatineau to downtown Ottawa. Money to run OC Transpo? Nada.
Sutcliffe said he wasn’t surprised by that, but remained hopeful.
“I’ve spoken to representatives from the federal government since the fall economic statement and they’re continuing to send encouraging signals about the decision-making process on some help for Ottawa,” he said. “We’re getting closer.”
And if the money isn’t there?
“If that doesn’t come, by February, say by the end of February, we’ll have to look at other ways of dealing with that,” Sutcliffe said.
“We’d have to find other solutions and all options are on the table. I’m not saying that any of these are desirable, but we’d have to look at increasing fares, a special transit levy, service reductions, other efficiencies … We’d have to look at all of those things.”
Neil Saravanamuttoo, director of CitySHAPES Ottawa, is dubious that help will come from Parliament Hill.
“The mayor seems optimistic that transit funding will be coming in early 2025. I have to admit I’m not quite so optimistic as he is,” Saravanamuttoo said.
“The federal government has been crystal, crystal clear that they do not do transit operations. They do transit capital costs, but they see transit operations as the responsibility of the provinces.
“If you think about it, if the feds were to provide operational funding to Ottawa, they would have to do the same for every city in the country. I just can’t see that happening. They’re not prepared to set a precedent and open up the floodgates.”
Saravanamuttoo also warned of another transit pitfall: OC Transpo’s assumption that ridership will continue to increase and its projection of $200 million in fare revenue in 2025.
“When we look back over the past several years, fare revenue has been consistently lower than expected. That fare revenue may come in closer to $150 million. That would not be unusual at all. We’re looking at this $36-million operational deficit, but there could be a fare deficit as well.
“At some point in the year, there will have to a reckoning. The city will just have to figure out a way to manage it.”
A spokesperson for Jenna Sudds, the Minister of Families, Children and Social Development, a former Ottawa city councillor and the ranking MP for the National Capital Region, said the government’s talks with Ottawa were continuing.
“Minister Sudds has always been committed to finding solutions that best serve the people of Ottawa — and will continue to do just that,” her director of communications, Margaret Jacques, wrote in an email. “Minister Sudds remains in active conversations with the mayor to ensure Ottawa residents are served well. As operational costs for public transit fall under provincial jurisdiction, we encourage the Province of Ontario to work with the City of Ottawa to address ongoing concerns to provide stable and predictable support for the community.”
But Sutcliffe says there are other ways for the feds to help. As an example, he cited that the provincial government is considering taking on the costs of maintaining Regional Road 174, something now paid for by the city.
“Cash is cash. When that’s completed, that would allow us to move money for other areas of our budget,” Sutcliffe said. “Of course, we’d welcome federal help with transit, but there are lots of ways that the federal government can help us.”
As a last resort, the city could use its reserve funds to keep OC Transpo whole, but that is not a sustainable solution.
“We have some (reserves), but those funds are an emergency basis only,” Sutcliffe said. “When you use reserves for operational challenges, you can only use them once. That’s not ideal.”
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