McGuinty has 'every confidence' fall budget will pass through minority Parliament

But just days after MacKinnon publicly fretted about the prospect of a sudden election that would stretch over the Christmas holiday period, McGuinty told reporters in South Korea he remains confident the budget will sail through the House of Commons.

“I have every confidence that we will pass the budget,” he said. “We will earn the respect and the support in the House. It’s a question of negotiations, it’s a question of making sure that we are reflecting priorities for different members of Parliament.”

McGuinty also said the fall fiscal plan will set the groundwork for Canada to meet its new commitment to the NATO alliance to increase defence spending to the equivalent of 5 per cent of GDP — a massive spike.

“I think what we’ll be doing in the budget is laying track to meet the 5 per cent target by 2035,” he said.

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first federal budget is set to be unveiled on Nov. 4, but the Liberals are just a handful of votes shy of being able to pass their fiscal plan through the House on their own.

The Liberals have 169 seats, while the other parties have 174. The Conservatives have 144 seats, the Bloc Québécois has 22, the NDP has seven and the Green Party has just one seat.

To pass the budget, the Liberals need to secure support from the opposition — or some opposition MPs will have to abstain from the budget vote. The annual spending plan is considered a confidence matter and could bring down the government if it fails.

Liberal Whip Mark Gerretsen said in an email he has “made it clear that we are expecting all members to be available to vote for all budget-related votes, given their significance in terms of government confidence.”

Fred DeLorey, a former Conservative party campaign manager, wrote this week he believes the country is barrelling toward an early election since “every opposition party has its own reason to vote no to the budget — and every one of them stands to gain by doing it.”

He wrote the Conservatives have “spent months painting Mark Carney as Trudeau 2.0, or worse” and cannot now back a Liberal budget, while the NDP “can’t be seen standing behind cuts” in an “austerity” budget.

NDP Leader Don Davies has said his party is “deeply concerned” about the prospect of an “austerity budget that will slash vital services.”

Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet has indicated his party is unlikely to support the budget. He presented a list of demands to the government, which include hikes to old age security benefits and higher federal health transfer payments to provinces.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre told a press conference this week he wants to see an “affordable budget,” but did not explicitly say if his party was prepared to vote against the spending plan or allow members to abstain from a vote.

“It will be up to them,” Poilievre said. “If they’re going to increase the cost of living for Canadians again, with more inflationary spending, then Canadians will judge them accordingly.”

MacKinnon, who is in charge of ensuring government legislation passes through the Commons, has been sending warning signals about the chances the budget will be voted down for more than a week now.

He said on Wednesday the Liberals are still negotiating with all of the other parties and expressed frustration as he accused Poilievre of angling for an early election.

“We’re continuing to do the hard work that we know a minority government imposes on us, but frankly, what I’m finding is, particularly in the case of the Conservatives, they’re asking us to support things they wouldn’t even support themselves,” MacKinnon told reporters on Wednesday.

“I think in the case of Mr. Poilievre, he is determined to try and cause a Christmas election to perhaps, I don’t know, maybe avoid the scrutiny that his party is giving him right now.”

MacKinnon was referring to lingering controversy over Poilievre’s recent claims that former prime minister Justin Trudeau probably violated the Criminal Code and the RCMP “covered it all up.”

Poilievre will face a party leadership review in January.

A Conservative fundraising email issued this week warned an election is “looming” as it solicited donations to fill the party war chest.

“This could be our final fundraising deadline before the Liberals drag us into an early election. They admitted last week that they don’t have the votes to pass their budget. But they STILL won’t make any changes to it,” said the email, which was signed “Team Pierre.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 30, 2025.

— With files from Sarah Ritchie in Geoje, South Korea and Dylan Robertson in Ottawa