A new survey shows that for the first time since the election, the Conservative Party has pulled ahead of the Liberals when it comes to national voter intention.
The Abacus Data poll conducted last week finds that if an election were held today, 41 per cent of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Conservatives, which is up one percentage point, while Liberal support has slipped four points, down to 39 per cent, since the question was asked at the beginning of the month.
It is worth noting that Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s victory in last week’s Alberta byelection is likely not factored into this survey, as it happened towards the end of the polling period.
Carney himself retains a favourability rating of +18, mostly unchanged since the election, while Poilievre’s favourability rating remains at -2.
The shift in voter intention appears tied to the fact that many Canadians do not see U.S. President Donald Trump and his tariff threat as the number one concern, with issues of affordability increasing.
The poll finds 60 per cent of Canadians see the rising cost of living as the number one concern. While Trump remains a top concern among more than a third of Canadians (38 per cent), he is closely followed by the broader economy (36 per cent), housing affordability (35 per cent) and healthcare (33 per cent) – all issues in which the Conservatives lead over the Liberals.
While Trump’s influence as a political issue in Canada appears to be diminishing, 56 per cent of those asked prefer the Liberals when it comes to dealing with the unpredictable American leader.
“The Carney government still enjoys a solid approval rating, Prime Minister Carney personally remains well-liked, and the Liberal brand remains broadly accessible,” said Abacus CEO David Coletto.
“But the cost of living crunch and continued frustrations around housing may be beginning to wear on that goodwill.”
The poll was conducted between August 15 and 19 among a random sample of 1,915 Canadians. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
