CALGARY – An oil market analyst says a major hike to his commodity price forecast for the year is a given, but the magnitude will depend on how long the Middle East war chokes off global crude shipments.
Enverus head of macro oil and gas research Al Salazar says he had predicted US$61-per-barrel West Texas Intermediate crude for 2026 before the U.S. and Israel began their strikes against Iran just over a week ago.
Salazar says that prediction is going up without question — well past US$70 on average for the year — and he’s not betting on the conflict being wrapped up in the four-to-five week timeline U.S. President Donald Trump has floated.
Global crude prices surged above US$100 per barrel earlier in the day, but had fallen back to around US$96 per barrel in midday trading.
That’s still an increase of more than 40 per cent of where prices were before the conflict began.
Salazar says government revenues in oil-producing provinces like Alberta will benefit, but the spike is otherwise an economic drag as consumers scale back spending to make up for increased fuel costs.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 9, 2026.
