The Toronto-area home-building industry is reporting its worst January on record dating back to 1981, with just 269 new homes sold last month, following its worst year on record in 2025.
Sales in January were down 36 per cent compared to one year prior and 80 per cent below the 10-year average, according to the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) report published Tuesday.
There would typically be 1,339 new home sales in the Greater Toronto Area in January, the group said in a release.
“Pricing is moderated, interest rates have now moderated, and supply and inventory is way up, so there’s a lot of choice, and we know demand is there because the population is still growing,” Justin Sherwood, BILD’s chief operating office, told the Star.
“So you have to ask yourself, what is keeping consumers on the sideline? And a lot of that has to do with the macroeconomic conditions, the global trade situation, the uncertainty that we’re seeing.”
The next worst period took place in the early 1990s, Sherwood said, adding however that this slump has lasted longer than the ‘90s downturn.
He’s calling on the federal government to move ahead “as quickly as possible” with its $12.2-billion commitment to reduce development charges and to pass the first-time homebuyers’ HST exemption ahead of the spring housing market, when sale activity is typically highest.
“Moving that forward quickly would provide even more certainty in the market,” he said.
The HST exemption could allow homebuyers to qualify for mortgages while development charge reductions would “structurally lower costs,” he added.
While new homes sales fell in January, the report shows prices were more stable.
The average price for new condos remained “at an apparent price floor,” increasing 1.2 per cent year-over-year to $1.027 million, while the benchmark price for single-family homes declined 10 per cent year-over-year to $1.397 million.
Sherwood noted, however, that those prices are down 25 per cent from the 2022 market peak.
The greater flexibility in pricing for single-family homes has to do with the lead time involved, he said.
“So what you’re seeing is reflective of pricing and activities and stuff that occurred well before, and additionally, when you’re making changes to a single-family property, you’re adjusting one plan, versus a condo, which you have to adjust the whole building.”
Of the homes sold, 85 were condo apartments (including stacked townhouses), a 50 per cent decline from January 2025 and 89 per cent below the 10-year average.
There were 184 single-family home sales (including detached, linked, semi-detached houses and non-stacked townhouses), representing a 26 per cent decline from January 2025 and 68 per cent below the 10-year average.
Developers were left with more than 20,500 new homes to sell, a number largely unchanged from December, including over 14,700 condo apartments and roughly 5,800 single-family homes.
Sherwood noted the trend of lower sales extends beyond the GTA.
“We have seen similar trends across the Greater Golden Horseshoe, most of Ontario, and in Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton, across all product types,” he said. “It’s not a Toronto-only problem.”
