Doug Ford remains well ahead, but the Feb. 27 Ontario election race is tightening somewhat as Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals gain ground, a new poll suggests.
The Abacus Data survey for the Star found Ford’s Progressive Conservatives at 41 per cent support, ahead of Crombie’s Liberals at 28 per cent, Marit Stiles’s New Democrats at 21 per cent and Mike Schreiner’s Greens at six per cent.
That’s a five percentage point drop for the Tories and a four percentage point increase for the Liberals since the last Abacus survey released Feb. 7. The NDP remained the same and the Greens went up one percentage point.
“It does show that Ford is not invincible in terms of his personal reputation,” Abacus president David Coletto said Monday. He noted, “Ford was at an artificially high place when this campaign started” because of the attention surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s threatened 25 per cent tariffs against Canadian goods.
“He’s still the favourite. But an election campaign is bound to bring down the incumbent numbers — we’ve seen it in almost every election, the desire for change goes up,” said Coletto.
Abacus surveyed 1,500 Ontarians from last Thursday through Saturday using online panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. While opt-in polls cannot be assigned a margin of error, for comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would have one of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The poll was conducted while Ford dominated the provincial campaign news cycle with a high-profile mission to Washington, D.C., to lobby American lawmakers and business leaders against Trump’s tariffs.
The poll was released before the four party leaders’ live televised debate Monday night at the CBC Broadcast Centre in Toronto.
“For those who say this election is about Trump or ‘standing up to the bully,’ Ford still has a big advantage,” said Coletto.
Indeed, 64 per cent of respondents who had an opinion on the matter believed the Tories were the best party “to deal with the impact of Donald Trump” compared to 16 per cent for the Liberals, 15 per cent for the NDP and five per cent for the Greens.
Ford called the snap provincial election 15 months early, framing it as a referendum on who could best deal with tariffs that would damage Ontario’s trade-dependent economy.
On which party “will keep the cost of living as low as possible,” the Tories lead with 37 per cent to 29 per cent for the Liberals, 21 per cent for the NDP and seven per cent for the Greens.
“They still have the advantage so they’ll feel comfortable with an eight-point lead, but it’s no longer that 15-point lead it was even a few weeks ago,” noted Coletto.
On which party “will best manage the provincial economy,” the Tories were at 41 per cent, the Liberals at 38 per cent, the NDP at 17 per cent and the Greens at three per cent. That’s a significant change from the Feb. 7 poll that found the Tories at 47 per cent, the NDP at 15 per cent, the Liberals at 13 per cent and the Greens at three per cent.
“I think what’s happened is some former PC supporters have moved to the Liberals and Bonnie Crombie is also benefiting from the fact that the Liberal brand is no longer as toxic as it was even a few weeks ago because of the prime minister stepping away,” Coletto said, referring to Justin Trudeau’s looming departure.
“The leadership race (to succeed Trudeau) and the dynamics that are happening at the federal level are probably helping her at the provincial level as well. I don’t think being a Liberal today is as challenging a prospect as it was a month ago,” he said.
On which party “will improve the health-care system,” the Liberals were at 39 per cent, the NDP at 29 per cent, the Tories at 26 per cent and the Greens at four per cent.
On which party “will do the most to make housing more affordable,” the NDP was at 41 per cent, the Liberals at 25 per cent, the Tories at 15 per cent and the Greens at 15 per cent.
And on which “will improve the education system,” 42 per cent said the Liberals, 27 per cent the Tories, 12 per cent the Greens and eight per cent the NDP.
Abacus found the approval rating of Ford’s two-term PC government has continued to slide since the election started with 34 per cent approving, 43 per cent disapproving and three per cent neutral.
That’s an overall minus nine per cent approval, whereas the Tories had a plus eight per cent approval in the first election poll released last month.
In terms of whether it is “time for a change in government,” 55 per cent felt it was — that’s up from 52 per cent earlier this month and 48 per cent in January’s poll.
“It’s not a danger zone (for the Tories,) but it’s getting closer,” said Coletto, referring to the 60 per cent “time for change” figure that traditionally makes governing parties nervous.
“These are the opposite directions that the Tories will want to see headed into a debate,” he said.
