The City of Ottawa will be one of the province’s
fastest-growing municipalities
over the next 25 years, according to provincial projections, with a “significant” boost in population that will guide the city’s strategy for housing and employment needs.
Forecasts from Ontario’s Ministry of Finance project Ottawa’s population to rise by nearly 530,000 residents to 1.68 million by 2051.
Ottawa’s population
hit 1.15 million in 2024.
The population growth forecasts will be used in the city’s updated official plan and will inform its growth management strategy to identify how the population will be allocated within the city.
The city would then commence a selection criteria and process for any new expansion lands needed to accommodate that growth, according to Royce Fu, manager of policy planning.
“The forecasts confirm that Ottawa will continue to grow strongly over the next 25 years and will remain one of Ontario’s
fastest-growing large cities
,” according to a staff report presented to the city’s planning and housing committee and later adopted by council.
“Ottawa’s growth outlook reflects its continued role as a major economic, institutional, and employment centre with strong regional and national connections.”
The city’s population grew by about 15,000 people per year from 2001 to 2024 and average annual growth is expected to rise to 19,600 people per year from 2025 to 2051, “reflecting sustained long-term momentum rather than short-term fluctuations,” according to the report.
Employment is also expected to grow in line with the population from 669,600 jobs in 2024 to 994,600 by 2051, an additional 325,000 jobs.
Total households will rise from 434,000 in 2024 to 692,000 in 2051 with an increasingly diversified mix of housing types, according to a study conducted by Hemson Consulting.
“The updated projections show that Ottawa is entering a prolonged period of sustained growth,” the city said in a statement following the Feb. 25 council session. “Accommodating this growth will require coordinated planning for housing, infrastructure,
transportation
, employment lands and community services.”
Will the city grow up, or grow out?
Several councillors expressed concern that the updated population projections would spur developers to push for the expansion of Ottawa’s urban boundary.
A motion from Stittsville Coun. Glen Gower reinforced the priority in the existing official plan to achieve more growth through intensification than developing “greenfield” (or previously undeveloped) land.
“Maintaining the existing urban boundary and village boundaries help the municipality conserve resources, promote sustainable growth and manage the efficient use of land,” according to the motion, which was seconded by Orléans South-Navan Coun. Catherine Kitts and carried by council.
The motion calls on city planners to include an analysis of a no-expansion policy in the 2027 official plan amendment that “outlines impacts and trade-offs on considerations such as servicing, transportation, financial, environmental and compliance with provincial policy.”
Gower said there is a “wide consensus” around the council table to avoid urban expansion, but warned the province could overrule council’s decision.
“We want to avoid urban expansion and village boundary expansion wherever possible, because in general, it’s not a healthy way to grow a city,” Gower said.
Council has been clear in this term and during the last term, Gower said, that the city’s goal is achieving the majority of growth through intensification rather than greenfield development.
“I’d like to say no more urban boundary expansion,” he said. “There are some trade-offs to that. That might not be possible, but I think as a black-and-white statement, we need to intensify more than we have greenfield.”
The province’s planning policy currently requires cities to have enough residential land supply to accommodate 15 years of projected growth.
“I think this council does not want to see any more boundary expansion than necessary — ideally zero, if we can achieve that,” Gower said. “But I think we also have to emphasize the province does not agree with us on that. The ministry of housing does not agree with us on that and, at any time, they could take the current 15-year land supply requirement and increase that to 20 years or 25 years, and the work that we do here may be overridden,” he said.
Gower has been a vocal opponent of an application by Claridge Homes to build new housing on 112 hectares of land west of Stittsville.
New provincial regulations came into effect in 2024 allowing landowners and developers to apply to change the urban boundary at any time instead of waiting for the city to conduct a population study and update its planning maps.
The study from Hemson Consulting represents the first step in a three-stage process that uses provincial population projections to identify housing and employment forecasts “to help us figure out what we should be planning for,” said Marcia Wallace, general manager of planning, development and building services.
“It does not take a position on whether or not the urban boundary should be expanded, or where intensification should occur or how,” Wallace said. “The next step will be in late April when we come back to committee and council with criteria that we should consider in evaluating where our growth should go and what factors should play a part in that analysis. And then, ultimately, at the beginning of 2027 we’ll come back with a growth plan strategy.”
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