More GTA homes, and especially condos, are going for under asking price, reveals new data provided exclusively to the Star by real estate technology company HouseSigma.
There’s been a “reset button” hit for buyers, Abhishek Singh, the vice-president of strategy and operations at HouseSigma, told the Star.
“A whole generation of people have been taught that property values only head in one direction — up,” he said.
Sixty-six per cent of homes in the GTA went for under asking in the first quarter of 2025, compared to 46 per cent in all of 2022.
And about 80 per cent of condos in the region went for less than the list price in the first part of the year, compared to 49 per cent in 2022.
Some of this could be reflective of strategy by sellers, who in a hot market can underprice to attract more bids.
But Singh said the average list price in the GTA is now about four to six per cent lower than it was at the market peak.
“Back then, due to intense competition, buyers were paying 4-5 per cent premium over that already much higher list price. Now, with excess inventory, the equation is reversed.”
Since the 1990s, the GTA property market, fuelled by low interest rates, has delivered “returns comparable to the stock market,” Singh said.
Buyers were welling to pay up with the expectation that prices would keep heading higher.
But starting in 2023, rising interest rates combined with other macroeconomic factors have changed the landscape.
Prices are down about 20 per cent on average from the 2022 peak, according to Toronto Regional Real Estate Board data.
Buyers don’t want to pay more for something when the price may continue to fall, Singh added.
The HouseSigma data comes from real estate boards, pulling all home transactions in the GTA from 2022 and the first quarter of 2025.
The company, known for its app and website that let users see how much homes sold for, has a real estate brokerage in the back end and aims to support consumers in buying, selling and leasing.
According to the HouseSigma data, in 2022, the average condo in the region went for 4.4 per cent over the list price, while in 2025 this dropped to about 1.5 per cent under.
For a detached home, it went from about 6 per cent over asking to 0.3 per cent under asking; and for a semi, from 9 per cent over to 4.5 per cent over.
This small difference for homes shows that finally “the buyer and seller expectations are somewhat matched,” Singh said.
But condos are “unequivocally in a buyer’s market.”
Singh said there’s a clear oversupply, and with increasing levels of inventory in the GTA, “the pain will persist or could get even worse.”
Oakville had the highest percentage of overall listings going for under asking in the first quarter of 2025 at 80 per cent, up from 56 per cent in 2022.
As one of the region’s “more affluent areas” it saw some of the biggest premiums, and is “now potentially seeing some of the heaviest discounts vs. list prices,” said Singh.
Wealthier buyers now simply have “more choice and more willingness to wait for a deal.”
It’s important to share this data with the public, he said.
HouseSigma wants to empower consumers with information.
“There is inherently a low level of trust in the real estate industry due to widespread opacity even about the most basic information,” Singh added.
“Transparency usually is the first step toward making anything better.”
Wahi, a digital real estate company that aims to put buyers and sellers in better control of their decisions, also recently did its own independent analysis of under asking sale prices.
Looking at May home sales across GTA neighbourhoods, and the median underbid amount, it found that home prices were bid down in 87 per cent of neighbourhoods in the region, up from 84 per cent in April and 60 per cent a year ago.
Including just condos, 98 per cent of GTA neighbourhoods were in underbidding territory, up from 97 per cent last month and 89 per cent in April 2024.
“I would say the message to sellers is, really do your due diligence and have realistic expectations,” said Benjy Katchen, chief executive officer at RPS Wahi.
In 13 per cent of neighbourhoods, sale prices were more than list prices. The top neighbourhoods for overbidding were Riverdale and the Junction in Toronto, and Birch Cliff in Scarborough.
Katchen said these neighbourhoods offer detached homes and semis in the $1 million to $1.4 million range.
The most underbid neighbourhoods were Moore Park in Toronto, Bayview Hill in Richmond Hill, and Lawrence Park in Toronto, part of the “luxury segment,” he said.
Neighbourhoods with fewer than five transactions a month were excluded from the analysis.
Strategic under pricing does come into play at times, Katchen said.
But so does “an adjustment period for sellers” to accept that prices have changed.
“You get to a little bit of a period where it sits for a while, and then eventually somebody folds in the towel and says, ‘OK, fine, I’ll sell for a little bit less than that.’”
Katchen added everyone seems to want to buy, and hold off, at the same time.
But this data shows there are some opportunities for buyers that can make the move now.
“You get your ducks lined up, get your financing, and put a condition or two, such as a home inspection, in the offer,” Katchen said.
“You’re not in this feeding frenzy that Toronto once was in.”
