Meteorologists expect a mild March Break and the onset of spring-like Ottawa weather — but that could mean an end to the Rideau Canal Skateway season.
Reports of an impending polar vortex collapse are circulating online, with some forecasts claiming that Arctic air could plunge into North America and extend winter well into March. But according to Environment Canada, those forecasts don’t hold up — at least not for Ottawa.
Instead of a late-season deep freeze, eastern Ontario is on track for a warmer-than-usual March Break, with spring-like temperatures likely continuing in the weeks that follow.
Is a polar vortex collapse coming?
The polar vortex is a large mass of cold air that sits over the Arctic, trapped by strong winds in the upper atmosphere. Sometimes, the system weakens due to sudden stratospheric warming — when temperatures in the stratosphere rise quickly, disrupting the polar vortex and allowing frigid air to spill southward. It’s often referred to as a polar vortex collapse and can cause extreme cold snaps in parts of North America, Europe, and Asia.
However, not every vortex disturbance leads to severe weather. Environment Canada meteorologist Geoff Coulson says reports predicting a collapse-driven deep freeze are not supported by current weather models for Ottawa.
“None of the sources I trust — National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, for example — are mentioning anything like this,” Coulson said. “It’s not to say that what these stories are mentioning couldn’t happen, but I’m not really seeing that type of weather pattern for southern and eastern Ontario.”
Instead of Arctic air pushing south, Ottawa and much of eastern Canada can expect a warmer-than-usual March, he said.
Evening Update
What to expect for March Break
If the forecast holds, Ottawa could see above-seasonal temperatures starting the week of March 10, making for a milder and potentially rainy March Break.
“We’re actually forecasting a shift in the weather pattern to warmer than normal temperatures starting next week,” Coulson said. “So as opposed to Arctic air flooding down and making winter last longer, we’re actually looking at more spring-like weather starting during March Break for southern and eastern Ontario, and perhaps continuing for the couple of weeks after that as well.”
While spring can still be unpredictable, Coulson emphasized that overall trends point to mild weather.
“It’s not to say we won’t get more in the way of perhaps rainfall over March Break and in the weeks after that,” he said. “There will still be storm systems, but it looks like we’ll likely be mild enough that it’s mostly going to be rain during that timeframe.”
Will there be any more cold snaps?
While overall temperatures are trending warmer, Coulson says it’s possible that Ottawa will get the occasional blast of Arctic air before winter fully loosens its grip.
“We could see a day or two here and there between now and the end of March when we get another blast of Arctic air to remind us that it’s not really fully spring yet,” he said. “But the overall trend from the models I’ve been looking at indicates that for Ottawa, and for the rest of southern and eastern Ontario, conditions are expected to be somewhat warmer than normal.”
What does that mean for the Rideau Canal Skateway?
The 2025 season of the Rideau Canal Skateway is likely coming to an end soon. While the canal had a much better year than recent winters, Coulson said the incoming warmth makes it unlikely the ice will hold up.
But the forecast as we’re going into March Break with these milder temperatures — and likely persisting milder temperatures — it doesn’t look very likely that the Skateway would be able to stay open into mid-March.”
Bottom Line: Ignore the doom forecasts
“The best advice has always been to stay on top of your local forecasts on a day-to-day basis, maybe out to a week for planning purposes,” Coulson said. “Certainly be aware of what these longer-term trends are saying, but we tend to live our lives in the day-to-day, and that’s probably where the most confidence in our forecasts are right now.”
Our website is your destination for up-to-the-minute news, so make sure to bookmark our homepage and sign up for our newsletters so we can keep you informed.
