OTTAWA—What went wrong?
The question dogged every Liberal cabinet minister heading into a meeting on Parliament Hill with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Tuesday morning. The clear and stinging loss of a Quebec riding in a Monday byelection that should have stayed Liberal red but instead went to the Bloc Québécois prompted a grilling by reporters about whether the Liberal leader should stay.
Most cabinet ministers were still gamely saying they had confidence Trudeau will — and should — stay on as leader, and downplayed the message voters are sending.
It was Immigration Minister Marc Miller who stated the painfully obvious answer to the question of what went wrong.
“Well, we lost,” Miller said wryly.
Tackling the bigger question of “why” that happened, Miller did not fault the Liberal campaign. He, like other ministers, said the Liberals had a good team and candidate in former city councillor Laura Palestini, “who gave it their all,” in Miller’s words.
Not all Liberals agreed, however, with one party insider blaming the loss in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun in part on poor organization. The insider, who agreed to speak on condition of anonymity, said the Liberals nominated their candidate too late — three months after the NDP named theirs — and that they weren’t “well-grounded” enough in the local community.
“Shame on us,” the source said.
Alain Therrien, the Bloc house leader, told the Star on Tuesday the Bloc had feared the famed big Liberal get-out-the-vote machine would pull through — but now, the Liberal loss “in a clear stronghold like that” shows the Liberal machine is broken.
But the clear message Liberal MPs and ministers have been given for public consumption was that the Grits can still turn it around if they only focus on Canadians’ priorities — cost of living and housing — communicate better, and if they show voters in a general election the decision to pick a government is a more profound choice with consequences for the country, than the one faced by voters in a byelection.
On his way to a cabinet meeting Tuesday, Trudeau told reporters “we are reflecting on how we are going to be able to increase (voter) participation so that people can understand that there’s an important choice to be made in the next election.”
“Obviously it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold Verdun, but there’s more work to do and we’re going to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” he said.
The long-rumoured aspirants for Trudeau’s job either lined up behind him or were conspicuously silent on a direct question about Trudeau’s leadership.
Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland slipped by reporters without saying a word and scooted into the cabinet room, despite the fact Statistics Canada had just reported Canada’s annual rate of inflation fell to two per cent in August, its lowest rate in more than three years, hitting the Bank of Canada’s official target. (She later posted on “X” it was “good news,” and again took some of the credit: “Our economic plan is working for Canadians.”)
Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said “these are not the results that we were looking for. At the same time, we need to deliver on the priorities of Canadians, and for my part, I’ll do my job, and I’ll continue to defend Canada’s interests around the world.” She dodged questions directly on Trudeau.
“We need to be humble today, to take a moment, to take stock,” said Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, adding the choice for Liberals is either “to retreat or double down.”
“I’d rather double down and make sure we work harder to present a vision and a plan,” he said. “We need a dose of optimism in this country. It’s not a time to talk down Canada. For me it’s the time to talk up” Canada’s potential.
Treasury Board President Anita Anand stuck to the line that for the Liberal government, “the work does not stop.” Asked if the party can win under Justin Trudeau, she said “yes, we can,” before walking away from reporters.
Others expressed the same sentiment.
Energy and Natural Resources Minister John Wilkinson said, “I think the prime minister has been clear that he’s going to lead us into the next election, he has the full support of his cabinet and his caucus,” adding when pressed, “and me.”
Liberal MPs who aren’t in cabinet expressed disappointment about the loss, but those who spoke to the Star on Tuesday said the defeat in Montreal won’t unleash a movement to turf Trudeau as leader, despite the calls for his resignation that followed the party’s byelection loss in Toronto in June.
Trudeau told a Montreal radio station last week that he is not going to resign regardless of the results in Monday’s byelections.
“If he’s not stepping down in the next few days, I don’t think he’s stepping down,” said one MP who agreed to speak on condition of anonymity.
The MP added the party still must take the defeat seriously, especially since it came on the heels of the byelection defeat in the long-safe Liberal riding of Toronto—St. Paul’s.
The MP argued the party should emphasize a “distinction of values” with Poilievre in the coming months as part of a significant strategic shift, rather than try and make changes by shuffling Trudeau’s cabinet or jettisoning top advisers like Trudeau’s chief of staff Katie Telford.
“These are two pretty big events,” the MP said, referring to the byelection defeats. “If that’s not going to trigger a change, I don’t know what will.”
The votes were held just as Parliament returned this week from its summer recess. Trudeau’s minority government is also now more vulnerable, after NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh withdrew from the alliance that was propping up the Liberals in exchange for co-operation on progressive priorities . Including the byelection results, the Liberals hold 154 seats in the Commons, the Conservatives 119, the Bloc 33, the NDP 25, the Greens two and there are three Independents. Two seats remain vacant.
Therrien, the Bloc house leader, said he believes his party now has more power to negotiate in the minority Parliament after it won Monday’s byelection in Montreal. The separatist party wants the Liberals to support its push to increase pension payments for seniors aged 65 to 74 and give Quebec more control over immigration into the province, among other priorities.
Karina Gould, the Liberal house leader, called it a “tough loss” for her party. But she doubted that the NDP’s win in Winnipeg, and the Bloc’s win in Quebec, will make it more likely the government will fall on a non-confidence vote this fall.
“I’m not sure it changes much” in the minority Parliament “because we still have things that both the NDP and the Bloc want to move forward with,” she said.
Early indications are the caucus might go along with the outlines of a plan Liberal strategists unveiled last week in Nanaimo to take them through to the next election.
Quebec MP Jöel Lightbound, who was critical of the way Trudeau led in the pandemic election campaign of 2021, said he plans to run in the next campaign, and “we need to make sure that we communicate properly and that we reinvent ourselves as we go along. We can’t campaign on the past. We need to present a vision for the future.”
“I don’t think that for the Liberals to engage in a leadership race right now would be of much interest to Canadians,” he added.
Poilievre, whose teams did not win in either riding, tweeted congratulations to his candidates “for boosting our vote share” by 16 per cent in Elmwood—Transcona and four per cent in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. Poilievre said the byelection outcomes were “devastating results for Trudeau who voters deemed not worth the cost.”
With files from Joy SpearChief-Morris
