OTTAWA – Statistics Canada is set to release jobs data for September this morning.
A Reuters poll of economists heading into the labour force update expects Canadian employers added 5,000 jobs last month, rebounding somewhat from a loss of roughly 66,000 positions in August.
TD senior economist Andrew Hencic says he sees potential for a loss of 35,000 jobs in September but cautions not to read too much into headline employment numbers.
He warns that the recent slowdown in population growth will likely skew labour data and observers would be better off looking at the unemployment rate for a gauge of how the labour market is holding up as economic growth sputters in Canada.
TD is expecting the jobless rate will climb to 7.2 per cent in September, in line with the consensus of economists calling for the unemployment rate to rise a tenth of a point from August.
The Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by a quarter point to 2.5 per cent last month and today’s release will be the central bank’s last look at the job market before its next rate decision set for Oct. 29.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 10, 2025.
