A new survey finds Doug Ford and the Conservatives are enjoying their highest level of support among Ontarians.
Abacus Data polling shows 50 per cent of committed voters would cast a ballot for the PCs, continuing the upward trend of support since the provincial election in February. It’s the highest polling numbers the Progressive Conservatives have seen in their seven-plus years in power.
The Bonnie Crombie-led Liberals remain at 28 per cent while support for the NDP, the official opposition at Queen’s Park, has plummeted to 13 per cent, continuing a downward trend since the election was held. The Green Party gained one to six percentage points in support.
Among the reasons for the strong showing is Ford’s handling of the tariff war with U.S. President Donald Trump and a shift in political style to a “more pragmatic, centrist governance model that seems well-attuned to the mood of the moment.” Abacus also cited his “cooperative dynamic” with Prime Minister Mark Carney and his willingness to be a team player on the national stage without losing his brand.
“This is a government whose support reaches across regional and generational lines, anchored by perceptions of stability and confidence at a time of uncertainty created by U.S. President Donald Trump,” says David Coletto of Abacus.
NDP Leader Marit Stiles says she’s hearing about other concerns from Ontarians as she crisscrosses the province.
“If you listen to the Premier, you would think everything was a-ok in Ontario, but I can tell you it is not,” said Stiles. “[Ontarians] want action in addressing some of the things they are struggling with, especially things like more affordable housing, cost of living, the shortage of doctors and access to health care.”
Ford himself remains popular with Ontarians, garnering 46 per cent support compared with 33 per cent who have a negative view of the Premier. His 13-plus net rating is the highest among any provincial leader by a wide margin.
Crombie’s approval rating is evenly split — 33 per cent positive, 32 per cent negative — as she faces a leadership review in September, while Stiles and Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner come in at 28 per cent and 25 per cent, respectively. While Abacus points out that both Stiles and Schreiner remain liked by those who know them, they remain largely unknown to most voters.
“Nearly one in five voters say they don’t know enough about either to offer an opinion,” says Abacus.
While the PCs continue to maintain strong support in the GTHA, Southwestern Ontario and Eastern Ontario, it is in Toronto where the margin over the Liberals is the closest, just 17 per cent.
The survey was conducted from July 10 to 15, 2025, among 1,000 eligible Ontario voters who matched the province’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. It has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent, 19 times out of 20.
