The biggest winners and losers from the 2025 Canadian election

Expectations had been upended when U.S. President Donald Trump mused about making Canada the 51st state and began unrolling punishing tariffs, swiftly reordering electoral priorities.

Results are about more than just the winning party, so based on early results here is who else looks to have won and lost out. 

WINNERS

Wayne Long 

The Liberal representative from Saint John-Kennebacasis in New Brunswick was the first MP to publicly criticize Justin Trudeau, and Monday he was enthusiastically voted back into office. In an email he sent to caucus last summer he called for the now-former leader to step down “for the good of our country,” after the party lost a loyally Liberal Toronto-area riding in a byelection. Long was one of the first flakes in what would become an avalanche. Trudeau would eventually quit, paving the way for a major change in fortune for the Liberals under Carney.

Danielle Smith

If the combative premier of Alberta was spoiling for a fight, she may get one. After meeting Carney shortly after he became leader, she vowed that the prairie province would “no longer tolerate” the way it had been treated by the federal Liberals and released a list of demands, from pipeline access to plastic straws, that would have to be met by the new PM to avoid an “unprecedented national unity crisis.” Coupled with the lack of the Liberal breakthrough some predicted in her province’s biggest cities, it looks like game on. 

Mark Carney

Besides the obvious, Carney gets an honourable mention for winning his first  election and landing in the top job. (He also narrowly avoids becoming the shortest serving prime minister. Had he not been re-elected he would have beaten Charles Tupper, who held the office for 69 days in 1896.) 

LOSERS

The NDP

As voters polarized between the Liberals and the Conservatives, it was the NDP who saw support wither — they were only leading in seven seats by the end of the night — far enough to put their official party status in jeopardy Monday night. 

Partway through the campaign, leader Jagmeet Singh abandoned the pretence that his party had any chance of winning and pivoted to arguing that just having NDP MPs in government in any capacity would force the government to keep promises on dental care and daycare. 

Still, it’s a collapse that will prompt big questions about the party’s future, and on Monday evening, as he trailed in his own riding, he announced he would be stepping down. 

Maxime Bernier

In an election shaped by Trump, it appears that voters tired of one of Canada’s most Trump-like figures. As results came, the one-time Conservative party hopeful turned People’s Party leader, who echoed Trump’s anti-immigrant and transphobic beliefs, floundered with single-digit support in his home riding of Beauce, Que. 

U.S.-Canadian relations

Life comes at you fast and, in the age of Trump, so does politics. 

While the election began under the shadow of Trump’s tariffs, the president stayed surprisingly silent for much of the campaign. Until its last days. The morning of election day, Trump took to Truth Social to implore Canadians to become the “cherished” 51st state so that there is “no more artificially drawn line from many years ago.” In one of his strongest rebukes of Trump, Pierre Poilievre told him to “stay out of our election” on X. Carney was more cryptic, tweeting “Elbows up, Canada.” 

The Elections Canada website

Nothing rankles on election night like technical difficulties. While the vote itself seemed to be progressing smoothly, the website did go down for some users as the results began to pour in. (“Are you kidding me?, read one comment on social media. “How?!!!”)