There are many reasons why Pierre Poilievre doesn't want a spring election. There's one surprising way he could buy more time

None of the opposition parties want an election this spring — they certainly don’t want a backlash from voters blaming them for an early trip to polls. But each has good political reasons for not supporting the Grits.

The Liberals showed Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, for example, that they can’t be trusted. Last fall, they explicitly went back on their word, promising Alberta Premier Danielle Smith the very same subsidy they told May they wouldn’t enact so she would vote for their budget.

The NDP, which is in the midst of a leadership contest, has group PTSD after the party’s supply and confidence agreement with former prime minister Justin Trudeau led to a near wipe out at the polls. It’s an experience they are not eager to repeat. Carney’s flip-flop on climate, however, may offer the chance to recapture some of progressive vote lost last spring. Last week, interim leader Don Davies said his party won’t help pass the upcoming confidence vote on the Budget Implementation Act vote but will follow the same playbook it adopted last fall, suggesting some MPs will abstain from the vote to avoid an election. A new permanent leader, however, might choose a different strategy this April.

The Bloc Québécois seems to believe Carney is vulnerable in Quebec. He’s not the climate champion some believed, he seems to misunderstand Quebec culture, or worse, not care.  Leader Yves-François Blanchet wants Carney to get back to the table with the U.S. and negotiate much needed tariff relief for the province’s lumber, aluminum, steel, and copper industries. This spring, the Supreme Court of Canada will also hear a challenge against Quebec’s Bill 21, a law that bars those wearing religious symbols from some provincial employment. Does the Bloc want to be seen propping up the federal government under this backdrop? The party is already on the record voting non-confidence in the government. It looks like that won’t change.

The Conservatives showed their cards last fall — by hiding behind the curtains during the budget vote and offering the Liberals unanimous consent to push forward three bills just before Christmas. Poilievre is now more explicit in that offer, wanting to work with the prime minister on shared priorities. Conservatives believe a vote this spring would result in a Liberal majority, with Canadians wrapping themselves around the flag and the current prime minister. Poilievre does not want, and possibly cannot win, an election against U.S. President Donald Trump. Two election losses would spell trouble for him — perhaps, not as much from his party’s base as from his caucus.

Nobody knows the risks of aligning your party with the government more than Poilievre. The Conservative leader prosecuted the case against the NDP so successfully that party is now at five per cent in Leger’s latest poll.

Having to stand up over and over again doesn’t just saddle your party with the government’s baggage, it is a sign of weakness — especially when you get little to nothing in return.

Having to defend why you’re calling out the Liberals for “driving up the cost of living” — pricing young people out of the housing market, leaving workers behind, and driving Canadians to record food bank use — as Poilievre did last Friday, but then helping keep them in office doesn’t make much sense.

“Canadians cannot afford life under the Liberal government,” Poilievre told the country. But Saturday morning, his Ontario MP Leslyn Lewis was on stage at the Conservative convention talking about an “unnecessary” early election, while Alberta MP Michelle Rempel Garner was telling viewers online that the Liberals “don’t deserve to govern.”

Well, which one is it? If the government is so terrible, is an election not necessary?

Telling Canadians you believe the Liberals are not governing properly but your party can’t defeat them right away because it needs more time to get organized; time to recruit star candidates; time to give Carney a record of unfulfilled promises that you can prosecute; time to, hopefully, lessen the Trump effect after next fall’s U.S. midterms; time to let Carney address the thorny issue of a separatist referendum in Alberta next year (that some of your supporters support); time to improve your own personal polling numbers; and time to find a million new votes is not the most compelling offer Poilievre can deliver. But time is what the Conservative leader needs.

Certainly, a floor crosser from the NDP or the Bloc would be better for the Tories. But while the Grits may hope more progressive-conservative minded-Conservatives join their side, so too might Poilievre. Fewer dissenting and unhappy voices in caucus? A big communication and logistical problem off his back? The freedom to fully prosecute the case against the government? Sounds pretty ideal.