Sales of new homes in the GTA remained at record lows for the eighth straight month in May, according to new data from Altus Group, the official source for the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD).
“It’s pretty dire out there,” said Justin Sherwood, senior vice-president of communications, research and stakeholder relations at BILD.
“It’s by no means a national problem. It is a Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area and lower mainland of B.C. problem.”
As a result of lower sales, housing starts — the number of new units that have shovels in the ground — are sliding.
“If this continues, we’re looking at significant job losses and lost economic activity, ” said Sherwood. “Jeopardizing both jobs and supply.”
It could mean a decline of up to 23,000 housing starts by 2027 compared to 2024 levels, he added, putting as many as 41,000 residential construction sector jobs and $10 billion in annual construction sector investment at risk in the GTA.
There would also be job losses for construction suppliers, as well as in sectors that depend on the spending of those industries, he said.
The last time sales were this low was during the housing crash in 1990-1991, and that trough lasted for about six months, Sherwood added. “So now we’ve eclipsed that by two months.”
GTA new home sales
There were only 345 new homes sold in May, down 64 per cent from last May and 87 per cent below the 10-year average of 2,749.
Condos
There were just 137 new condos sold in May in the region, down 74 per cent year over year, and 93 per cent below the 10-year average.
Single-family homes
And 208 new single-family homes were sold last month, down 53 per cent from last year. This includes detached, linked and semi- detached houses and townhouses, but excludes stacked townhouses.
Benchmark prices
Prices are also down for both new single-family homes and condos in the GTA.
The benchmark price for condos was $1.021 million in May, down 2.2 per cent over last year. The benchmark price for single-family homes was $1.506 million, which was down 6.6 per cent over the last 12 months.
Inventory
The new home inventory was up from last month to 21,571 units, including 16,384 condo units and 5,187 single-family dwellings.
That’s 17 months worth of inventory — the time it would take to sell inventory at current demand levels.
Sherwood said he thinks that prices have hit a floor as they can’t go much lower given the costs to build.
But the uncertainty created by the ongoing trade war with the U.S. has buyers “spooked.”
BILD is calling for reductions in development charges and asking for governments to consider scrapping the HST on new homes all together to spur sales and construction.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals tabled legislation last month to introduce a GST rebate for first-time buyers of select new homes.
Right now there are “record completions” because of sales in 2021 and 2022, Sherwood said. But “we will work through those, and with nothing coming down the pipeline, nothing getting built when demand returns, there’s just not going to be any supply.”
