Toronto is set to enjoy an unseasonably warm Saturday before rain sweeps in on Sunday, marking a shift toward wetter conditions that could linger into next week.
Forecasts project a daytime high of 20 °C on Saturday, with partly sunny skies and only a slight chance of showers in the evening. That’s well above the city’s mid-October average high of around 14–15 °C, according to historical climate data from Environment and Climate Change Canada.
The warmth won’t last long. Sunday is expected to bring steady rainfall and a high near 18 °C, with forecasters calling for up to 20–25 millimetres of precipitation through the day. Winds from the south are expected to gust over 20 km/h, adding to the damp conditions.
The rain is forecast to continue into Monday and Tuesday, with daytime highs falling back into the mid-teens. By midweek, Toronto could see several consecutive days of showers, a pattern typical of late October as colder air masses begin to dominate.
For perspective, Toronto’s warmest Oct. 18 in recent decades reached 23 °C in 2016, while the coldest daytime high on record for that date dipped to just 7 °C in 2009. This year’s forecast puts the city closer to the upper end of the historical range.
Historical context: October’s wild weather swings
Toronto’s climate records show that October is a transitional month, with average highs dropping from about 20 °C at the start of the month to 11–12 °C by the end. Rainfall is also common: the city typically records 80–90 millimetres of precipitation in October, spread over 10 to 12 days of measurable rain.
In mid-October 2020, for example, Toronto saw nearly 30 millimetres of rain fall over a two-day stretch. In 2018, a warm spell pushed temperatures above 22 °C before a cold front brought heavy showers.
For those planning outdoor activities, Saturday will be the best bet to enjoy fall colours and mild temperatures before the rain arrives. Sunday’s soggy conditions may impact events and travel, particularly with heavier downpours expected in the afternoon and evening.
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