It was rejected.

Oh well, they thought. The unit was overpriced, Hall believed, with the owners countering at $760,000. There would be other places. 

“We’ll walk away,” the 28-year-old remembers deciding. “We’ll just wait a little longer.”

As the typically busy autumn real estate season arrives, a hallmark of this time of year, along with back-to-school, early Halloween decorations, and pumpkin spice, the desire to peer into a crystal ball has never been stronger.

Potential buyers have gone into September with the upper hand and plenty of available listings. But many are still waiting for interest rates to drop and prices to fall even further. 

Meanwhile, sellers are adjusting their expectations and realizing it’s not 2022 anymore. So-called “move up” buyers depend on first-time purchasers like Hall, but if they can sell their current home there are opportunities for big savings on their next one.

And there are plenty of wild cards that experts say could shake up the market, such as an upcoming rate announcement and whatever U.S. President Donald Trump does next. 

While some realtors remain optimistic that buyer confidence is starting to return after the shock of the ongoing trade war cools, only one thing’s for sure: it’s a fall market like no other. 

Buyers can ‘only sit on the sidelines for so long’ 

“We’re coming out of a very, very, slow summer, a summer that we haven’t seen in years,” said Desmond Brown, an agent with Re/Max Hallmark Realty Limited.

Like most realtors and sellers, he’s hoping things will pick up soon.

But “there’s still so much uncertainty with this tariff war, and most buyers are sitting on the fence, especially the ones in the lower level,” he said, which in Toronto is anything under $800,000 — essentially the condo market. 

A lot of tenants who might consider buying are staying put for now as rents have come down and interest rates are still a bit high for them.

“The lower end basically fuels the whole market,” Brown said.

“Until that segment of the market starts to move, we’re not going to see a lot of movement in the middle or upper end.”

With the condo market collapsing and investors nowhere to be found, all eyes are on the potential rate cut in mid-September as one way to potentially jump-start sales. 

“If we see the Bank of Canada cut the rate by about another quarter point, that may give those buyers in the entry level a little bit more confidence to move forward,” Brown added.

The next announcement is Sept. 17.

In its last decision, the central bank left the key overnight lending rate at 2.75 per cent, while leaving the door open to future cuts if the economy worsened.

Among other things, the rate impacts the monthly payments of owners with variable mortgage rates — the higher the rate, the higher the bill.

Numbers released by Statistics Canada showed the country’s economy shrank by 1.6 per cent in the second quarter of the year, more than many experts expected, which was largely attributed to Trump’s tariffs. This has led some experts to predict a rate cut.

Don Kottick, president of Re/Max Canada, said some buyer confidence has returned to the market, despite the simmering trade war. 

A new report from Re/Max on the fall market surveyed Canadians on their thoughts and found 54 per cent believe it’s now a good time to make a deal on a home.

“This is just kind of the new status quo. People have to move for life decisions and for a lot of different reasons,” he said. They can “only sit on the sidelines for so long.”

Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist at RBC, said the “fears of a major economic hit” have receded.

“We’ve seen confidence starting to rebuild in the market as summer came along,” he added. 

How low can they go? 

The Re/Max report predicted prices will continue to decline this fall in Toronto, by four per cent.

The most recent numbers from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) show prices on everything from condos to detached homes are continuing to fall, with a 23-per-cent drop in average price for all property types in the region, since the winter 2022 peak.

Brown said that amidst all of this, homes in certain desirable downtown Toronto neighbourhoods, such as Riverdale, Leslieville, and parts of Cabbagetown, are still holding value.

The luxury market is also still doing well, he said, as buyers there don’t need as much of a mortgage, and are less impacted by interest rates. 

While the trade war has “derailed” confidence, said RBC’s Hogue, tariffs are more targeted and “not affecting the broader economy as much as feared earlier this year.”

He’s predicting a decline in prices in the latter half of 2025 and into 2026 with a gradual recovery in resales — but no more rate cuts.

But, he added, there are still very few sales taking place in the GTA pre-construction condo market — newly built condos with units sold before completion. 

The joy of missing out

Affordability — in terms of both interest rates and prices — is still a barrier for many would-be buyers, Hogue noted, with “fairly significant pent-up demand.”

Thirty-year-old James Zhan and his wife are in that camp.

After watching headlines on falling prices closely, they crunched the numbers and realized they can afford a home in the 905 with about 20 per cent down.

They’re currently renting in North York, and stockpiling savings. They’d eventually like to get a townhome, semi or detached property in a community like Stouffville or Aurora.

But they’re not rushing in.

“I just want to see if we can wait for the price to drop a little more so it’s a little bit more affordable,” said Zhan. He and his wife are lucky to have cheap rent and each dollar more of a down payment means less of a mortgage.

Maybe prices coming down is bad for investors, and others who stretched themselves thin, he said, acknowledging they probably made the best decision they could at the time. But for him, and others waiting at the door of the market, it’s a good thing. 

“The prices should not be this high to begin with,” he said. 

With more choice for buyers, they’re able to put more conditions — typically for a home inspection or that their financing goes through — on offers, added Tim Syrianos, the broker-owner of both Re/Max Ultimate Reality Inc. and Re/Max Condos Plus Corp.

Move-up buyers are still often coming out ahead, if they manage to sell, as they may get less for their condo or semi but also get a bigger home for a reduced price, he added.

“Sellers are adjusting their expectations,” Syrianos said. Some who bought during the peak paid more for their home than what it’s worth now and are convinced another rate cut will bring buyers back. 

For now, Hall, the potential first-time buyer, is still open to purchasing. But, like Zhan, she’s in no rush.

There are more rentals on the market now, she said, and landlords who “jack up” the rent are not as competitive. 

“If things don’t work out, I think we’re fine with renting,” she said.

“We’re not looking at it from an investment standpoint, we just want somewhere to live.”