Torontonians strongly favour a Liberal government under Mark Carney, according to a CityNews-Leger poll.
That is likely not good news for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, as experts say Toronto ridings will be crucial for any path to victory for both the Liberals and Conservatives in this election.
While the national poll shows the race between the Liberals and Conservatives to be a dead heat, the poll showed that half of Torontonians asked said they would cast their vote for the Liberals while the Conservatives would garner just 31 per cent support with the NDP even further back at 14 per cent.
A similar number also believe the Mark Carney-led Liberals would be the best party for their city, with the Conservatives actually losing some support to the People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime Bernier.
“Because Toronto is the largest urban area in the country, the 905 – the way that area swings if it’s predominantly Liberal, you get a Liberal federal government. If it’s predominantly Conservative, you get a Conservative federal government,” says Nelson Wiseman, Professor Emeritus of Political Science at the University of Toronto.
The perception that the Liberals would be the best party for Toronto remains consistent across all demographic groups where they enjoy strong support among women (52 per cent) and more than 50 per cent in those aged 33 to 54 and 55-plus. The Conservatives’ strongest showing is with men, but even there, the gap is 11 points to the Liberals.
Carney is the choice of 47 per cent of Torontonians for Prime Minister, an almost 2-to-1 gap over Poilievre. The strongest support for the Conservative leader is among men (35 per cent) and while more than half of women favour Carney, 27 per cent said they still hadn’t made up their mind.
The national poll found that among Canadians the relationship with the United States and Donald Trump’s tariff threat is uppermost in their minds. While 4 in 10 see Carney and the Liberals as best equipped to handle that fragile relationship, 6 in 10 Ontarians say Premier Doug Ford is doing enough or more than enough when it comes to managing the province’s relationship with the U.S.
Ford, who recently ran a provincial campaign solely on the premise that he would be the best one to deal with Trump and his constant tariff threat, easily outranked fellow premiers David Eby of B.C. (40 per cent) and Alberta’s Danielle Smith (36 per cent) in this regard.
Alongside Trump’s tariffs and Canada’s tensions with the U.S., experts say there are a few key issues party leaders must keep in mind to win over Toronto voters.
“Talking about issues, like the housing crisis, affordability crisis – the Liberals are talking about doing a high-speed rail – those sorts of things could have more of an impact at the local level,” said Lori Turnball, a political analyst and Professor in the Faculty of Management at Dalhousie University.
Despite having just gone through a provincial campaign in which 45 per cent of the electorate turned out to cast a ballot, Wiseman doesn’t believe there will be election fatigue when it comes to the federal vote.
“In this election, I expect voter turnout is going to be much closer to 60 per cent, maybe even above 60, maybe 65. But it won’t be below 55,” he says. “Ontarians are more oriented to federal politics than they are to provincial politics.”
The online poll was conducted between March 10 and March 13 among 201 respondents, which were weighted according to age, gender, region and education to ensure a representative sample of the Canadian population. A probability sample of this size would yield a margin of error of +/- 6.91 per cent.
With files from Catalina Gillies
