OTTAWA—It’s Show-Don’t-Tell time.
The Trudeau government’s strategy in the face of Donald Trump’s latest 25 per cent tariff threat is fourfold: prove Canada is a reliable neighbour bent on securing borders against illegal migration and drugs.
Keep up the diplomatic charm-offensive. Keep the list of politically-sensitive American products that could be strategically hit with Canadian counter-tariffs in the back pocket. And hope an all-hands-on-deck approach takes hold.
It could work. Or not.
There is a potential Canadian tariff list in the works, for use “if needed,” Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland told premiers Wednesday night, according to sources with knowledge of the discussions. But it’s not one the Trudeau government is prepared to release or talk about publicly.
In an interview with the Star, Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Andrew Furey said while such a list is useful to have, “my preference and I think, strategically and purposefully, is it needs to be a diplomatic resolution.”
More important at this time, he said, is “communicating to Americans the impact that this will have to them, to their families, to their tables, to their vehicle, to their electricity bills is incredibly powerful and truthful and important. And I think that the citizens of the United States are not going to tolerate a 25 per cent increase in, for example, their gas bills or electricity bills or their grocery bills. And some of these measures will cause just that.”
If the Trudeau government is planning any kind of advertising campaign to do that, nobody’s saying. But the Ford government is. Ontario’s ads launch Monday.
You should expect, however, that Ottawa will try to get media to cover how Mounties and border guards flex their muscle along the Canada-U.S. border, touting, along with ministers, drug busts, or arrests of illegal smuggling operations, or new investments to “visibly and demonstrably” show — as Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc said — that the RCMP and CBSA work “daily” with American and local partners to keep the border secure.
The Trudeau government has agreed to beef up resources, and provide RCMP and the border agency with “new technologies, drones, helicopters, additional human resources necessary in the case of surge requirements,” he said.
“This is a binational challenge,” LeBlanc said. “None of this is a one-way street.”
The target audience: worried Canadians and Americans, premiers and lawmakers south of the border.
The goal is to show Canada is not Mexico. And not China.
Then there is that diplomatic charm offensive that has been underway for months. There is a hurry-up-and-wait feel to it right now.
Canadian Ambassador Kirsten Hillman and her Washington team have criss-crossed the U.S., met with decision-makers and influencers, including confidantes of Trump, as have a couple of cabinet ministers. However, many of Trump’s cabinet picks, those key to the Canada-U.S. relationship, remain to be confirmed. Protocol niceties that need to be followed while President Joe Biden is still in the Oval Office limit some of the kinds of meetings and discussions that can be had. For now, cabinet ministers in Ottawa are seeking informal meetings with those nominees, and talking to other influencers and decision-makers, according to two other federal sources.
Here, too, the premiers have a role to play.
Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew told CBC Thursday that the premiers are united in their desire to secure the Canada-U.S. relationship and are stepping up.
Furey, who is also chair of the eastern premiers group including Quebec, said he’s written to New England governors to request a meeting to press Canada’s case, and has raised with the governor of Massachusetts what a 25 per cent tariff would mean to Boston residents’ electricity rates.
Fundamentally, Furey said, “I don’t think a trade war helps the economy of either country. More importantly, it hurts the citizens of both countries.”
As for that “Team Canada” approach, it’s already on shaky ground.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith questioned whether Trudeau’s the right person to lead Canada’s defence, claiming in an interview with CBC there’s too much “personal animus” between Trump and Trudeau. In the first ministers’ meeting, she downloaded a litany of grievances about Trudeau’s approach, two sources said.
Premier Doug Ford, whose office initially issued a statement critical of the federal government as “slow to act and stuck on the backfoot” was more upbeat in person, saying he thought “it was a real constructive conversation.”
“We all voiced our opinion to the prime minister how important it is to listen to the threat from president-elect Trump,” Ford told reporters. “We have to take our borders seriously and really tighten up the borders and he agreed. He knows how serious it is.
“We look forward to continuing to work with the prime minister and the federal government on this,” he added.
Ford stressed he’s “confident … we’ll be able to move forward on this in a rapid fashion” in terms of sending Trump a message that Canada is making border security a priority.
“The most important thing is that it’s Team Canada, we’re all sticking together. We put political stripes aside and are doing well as Team Canada,” he said.
But one senior provincial official privy to the talks said the fact that Trudeau told the premiers he “would come back with a plan,” suggested that as of Wednesday night they didn’t have one.
“They finally read the room and communicated about addressing the border but I’d judge them by their actions: how many officers/drones/planes? And by when? We don’t know. When will we know?” said the insider, speaking confidentially in order to discuss the closed-door meeting.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre flatly dismissed Trudeau’s appeal to set aside partisanship to present a united front. Poilievre slammed Trudeau as “weak” and without the “brains or backbone” he presumably has to stand up to Trump. Poilievre demands an immediate election to replace Trudeau.
Alberta’s Smith and Quebec’s François Legault had earlier taken Trump’s side, with Smith calling the president-elect’s arguable premise — that “thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before” — “valid,” and Legault calling it “legitimate.”
Before the meeting, Legault said he doesn’t trust Ottawa not to horse-trade away Quebec’s aerospace, aluminum, forestry and agricultural products in favour of Alberta’s oil and Ontario’s auto-sector and wants a Quebec seat at any table.
Behind closed doors, Trudeau and Freeland again urged them not to amplify Trump’s claims, with Freeland saying, “let’s not negotiate against ourselves,” according to a federal source on the call.
Furey said Thursday he felt they all share that goal. “While we have domestic differences of opinions with the federal government often, and almost all jurisdictions do, I do believe that there was, there can be, and should be a united front in approaching the United States, respecting the regional sensitivities.”
He said Trudeau and Freeland promised more information-sharing and transparency on what they have in store.
At the same time, Furey said, the Liberal government faces a reality when dealing with the unpredictable Donald Trump, that was obvious with his Monday night bombshell social media threat against America’s three biggest trading partners. It “came out of left field” and was “an example of creating chaos.”
“Sure, they have a strategy, but what’s the strategy for chaos?” Furey asked.
“You can be strategic. You can plan. You can stay up all night. You can have all the best people. But when you have an actor that is willing to be and wanting to be chaotic at times, it’s difficult to plan.”
