RIO DE JANEIRO – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will have a series of key meetings on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro on Monday, including one-on-one talks with U.S. President Joe Biden and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, at a time when the future of trade within North America is uncertain.
Trudeau’s meeting with Biden Monday afternoon will likely be their last before the Donald Trump takes over the Oval Office on January 20th.
In the scheduled bilateral with Sheinbaum, the two leaders are expected to discuss how best to tackle Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on goods imported to the US and the future of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.
The USMCA (also known as CUSMA) was forged in 2018 during Trump’s first term in the White House, after he insisted on a re-write of the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which brought Mexico into the existing U.S.-Canada pact.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford has called for Canada to go it alone on future negotiations with the U.S., arguing that Mexico’s lower wages and weaker labour standards have put its USMCA partners at a disadvantage.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has also endorsed Ford’s call for Canada to freeze out the Mexicans.
Of particular concern are Chinese-made goods flowing into the region through the USMCA, something likely to provoke Trump’s ire.
At the end of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima, Peru, on Saturday, Trudeau called Mexico “a solid partner” and said he was confident that any future trade issues could be resolved on a tripartite basis.
“There are concerns around the level of Chinese investment in Mexico that I think need to be addressed,” he said. “But I am hopeful that we’re going to be able to work constructively over the coming months and perhaps years.”
Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, who fronted Canada in the USMCA negotiations, has noted that the agreement was struck at Trump’s insistence. She refers to it as “his” deal.
But Trump’s commitment to the USCMA during his second term is a worrying unknown. It’s unclear whether Canada or Mexico would get an exemption the 10 per cent global tariffs he has vowed impose on all foreign-made products.
The USMCA is set for a review in July 2026, when any of three countries could choose to drop out.
During his first term in the White House, Trump rationalized his decision to impose tariffs on Canadian-made steel and aluminum as an issue of national security. He relented only after Canada retaliated with tariffs on a strategically-chosen basket of US exports.
Trudeau will also meet Monday with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. The two leaders have clashed in the past over her views on LGBTQ+ rights but the bilateral relationship appeared to warm when they met at the G7 summit she hosted in Italy in June.
So far, Trudeau has yet to schedule any meetings at the Brazilian G20 summit with either Chinese leader Xi Jin Ping or Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, when Canada’s ties to both countries are strained.
Trudeau and Xi had a “brief exchange” in Lima, according to the Prime Minister’s Office, though neither side disclosed further details.
When Trudeau visited China in 2017, he and Xi committed to regular in-person meetings and there was discussion of creating a framework to explore a possible a free trade agreement. But the relationship later soured over China’s detention of two Canadians in apparent retaliation for the arrest of a Chinese telecom executive in Vancouver.
Relations with New Delhi worsened after the 2023 murder of Sikh activist in British Columbia that Trudeau blamed on the Indian government. Six Indian diplomats were expelled when the RCMP alleged they were involved in the slaying — a claim India denies.
