With preparations underway for a vote by 55,000 Canada Post workers on whether to accept the Crown corporation’s “final” contract offer, labour experts say it’s unlikely the ballot will bring the long, bitter labour dispute to an end.
Last week, federal jobs minister Patty Hajdu ordered a vote on the offer be held “as soon as possible,” with the Canadian Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) to oversee the process. Wednesday, the Crown corporation was set to hand over its list of employees to the CIRB, while the Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW) was expected to respond later this week. Both sides are set to meet with the CIRB later this week to discuss the timing and rules for the vote, which the Crown corporation hopes will end the dispute, which already led to a 32-day strike last year.
The precise timing of the vote isn’t clear, but the outcome almost certainly is, said Larry Savage, a labour studies professor at Brock University.
“The reality is that forced final offer votes rarely turn out the way employers expect them to,” said Savage, pointing to a final offer vote by workers at a Windsor hotel earlier this week. While that vote was held under Ontario’s labour laws rather than the federal Canada Labour Code, the dynamics are largely the same, said Savage.
And, he pointed out, the workers at a Windsor Best Western overwhelmingly rejected their employer’s offer, with 90 per cent voting against it.
“These forced votes tend to back fire on employers,” said Savage. “Because at the end of the day, the workers understand that their union does a better job of looking out for their interests than their employer does — especially an employer who’s already committed to a major restructuring.”
CUPW has been actively encouraging its members to vote against the offer, which it called an attack on collective bargaining.
“Once again, the Government has stepped into our bargaining process, attacking our rights and taking the Employer’s side. We didn’t ask for this fight, but we are ready to face it,” CUPW said in a bulletin to members late Tuesday.
In an emailed statement Wednesday, Canada Post expressed hope that its employees would approve the offer.
“While it’s entirely their choice, we hope they will vote to accept our offers, to bring resolution to this round of negotiations so we can return to stability and focus on beginning to make the changes needed to better serve Canadians in today’s economy,” Canada Post said.
That’s unlikely to happen, said University of Toronto labour studies professor Rafael Gomez.
“Forced votes tend to get voted down by a very large margin,” said Gomez, director of U of T’s Centre for Industrial Relations and Human Resources.
Even without CUPW’s history of relative militancy, the odds would be stacked against workers accepting the offer, Gomez added.
“It’s statistically way more likely that they vote it down,” Gomez said.
A no vote, however, could help move negotiations along, he added.
“If it’s close to 100 per cent, the employer would realize it really needs to move more. If it’s closer to 50, the union could say ‘come on, it was close. Throw us a bone,’” said Gomez.
Last week, CUPW criticized the Crown corporation, saying it was trying to avoid a negotiated settlement by asking Hajdu to order a vote, and by insisting any arbitration be based on a key report from veteran mediator William Kaplan, who said Canada Post was effectively insolvent. Kaplan also said there’s an impasse in bargaining, suggested arbitration wouldn’t be a good choice to deal with Canada Post’s need for restructuring, and said a final offer would be the third option for an end to the dispute.
Earlier this month, Canada Post rejected the union’s request for binding arbitration, saying it would take too long, and could exacerbate its financial struggles.
On May 28, Canada Post made what it called its “final” contract offer, which includes a 13-per-cent wage increase spread over four years, as well as a $1,000 signing bonus. Two days later, it asked Hajdu to order a vote on the offer.
CUPW members have been in a legal strike position since May 23, but their strike action has thus far been limited to a ban on overtime work.
Kaplan’s May 15 report said Canada Post was effectively insolvent, and suggested the use of community mailboxes, the elimination of home delivery except for parcels, and getting rid of some post office locations and replacing them with franchises.
Kaplan also suggested expanding parcel delivery to seven days a week, with the use of part-time and temporary employees.
