Justin Trudeau is stepping down. Now, the assumption within Liberal circles — and of Grit MPs — is about to be tested.
Is the Liberal party’s slump in the polls related to Trudeau’s unpopularity, or is it a general dissatisfaction with the federal government?
Are the anecdotal stories that Liberal MPs have heard repeatedly at the doors — the “once he resigns, I will support you” stories — real, or are they comments that kind people said to the member of Parliament in front of them to avoid disappointing them further?
Many MPs believed — and the growing calls for Trudeau to step down reflected it — that the Liberal leader was an anchor around their necks.
“Now, it’s quite overwhelming from within the community (that he should resign),” London MP Peter Fragiskatos was quoted telling the London Free Press over the weekend. “I’m not talking only about Liberal supporters, I’m talking about Londoners in general.”
In a letter released Friday, Winnipeg MP Ben Carr wrote that what he’d heard from his community was people “are not feeling alienated by progressive values and policies, but rather by our leadership.”
Liberals like to point to progressive policies the Trudeau government helped usher in: $10-a-day child care, a dental-care program for those less fortunate, the Canada Child Benefit that lifted tens of thousands of children out of poverty. In the words of Toronto Beaches—East York MP Nate Erskine-Smith, caucus wanted a leader who could help “protect the progress” and not contribute to the election of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, whom they view as a threat to those programs.
But for months — more than a year, actually — Trudeau clung to the idea that Canadians would do what he himself seemed unwilling to do: put the country’s interests ahead of their feelings for the prime minister.
As late as mid-December, Trudeau told CBC’s comedy show, This Hour Has 22 Minutes, that he intended to run again, and suggested he thought he could win. (The segment, broadcast on New Year’s Eve, was recorded before finance minister Chrystia Freeland threw a grenade into Trudeau’s efforts to rebrand the government, quitting the cabinet on Dec. 16 by criticizing the prime minister as focused on “costly electoral gimmicks” rather than on the economic threat posed by incoming U.S. President Donald Trump.)
“Right now, we’re in a moment where everything is difficult and Pierre Poilievre is trying to convince Canadians not to believe in themselves, not to believe in the CBC, not to believe in climate change, not to believe in gun control, not to believe in women’s rights,” the prime minister told 22 Minutes’ Mark Critch. “I believe Canadians rise to the occasion,” Trudeau said.
There may be many reasons to dislike Poilievre: his aggressive, juvenile, vulgar tone; his divisive über-partisan nature.
But despite his lack of mainstream interviews, Poilievre hasn’t tried to hide who he is. He picks fights with the media, insults his opponents, repeats inaccurate statements, opposes rather than proposes. He sees politics as a battle, not as an opportunity to build consensus.
For those worried about upholding Canada’s constitutional foundations and minority rights, Poilievre has said he plans to invoke the federal government’s first-time use of the notwithstanding clause, hinting it will be for bail reform or mandatory minimums. (In a recent interview with Jordan Peterson, Poilievre pledged “the biggest crackdown on crime in Canadian history.”)
For progressives, there are reasons to fear the sweeping policy changes he plans to introduce. “Canadians will give me a mandate to take the country in a completely opposite direction,” he told Peterson. During their lengthy interview, Poilievre argued against redistributive policies (which he claims take from the “working class” and give to the “super rich”) and suggested he opposes an expanded social safety net, describing government “help” as “the sunny side of control.” In Poilievre’s view, Trudeau is “dedicated to … rehashed socialism,” whereas he wants to slash the size of government, reduce regulations (“remove constraints”), “cut taxes,” and “unleash the power of the free market,” to “allow people to prosper.”
For the past 18 months, Trudeau hoped that Canadians would fear and dislike Poilievre’s politics so much they would put aside their own feelings about the Liberal leader. Despite public opinion polls suggesting more than 80 per cent of the country was itching for change, and Trudeau’s own unpopularity soaring, the prime minister could not bring himself to do what he wanted Canadians to do: put his own leadership ambitions aside for the good of the country.
With Trudeau’s hand forced by a caucus revolt, MPs will discover whether voters really were just tired of Justin Trudeau, or whether the country craves a sharp turn to the right.
Unfortunately for the Liberals, the prime minister has left a very short runway for his successor to succeed.