From public transit support, to public service jobs and federal payments to the city, Ottawa voters have a lot at stake in the April 28 vote.
Ottawa is the seat of Parliament and the home of much of the public service. It’s also a city of one million residents working and raising families in the shadow of the federal government.
The federal election, now officially underway, will have deep impacts on a national capital population struggling with tariffs, the continuing fallout from COVID and the trucker protest, and the need for more “fairness” from other levels of government. Here’s a quick election overview.
What are the Ottawa issues in this election campaign?
Like the rest of the country, Ottawa is deeply involved in how to deal with the Trump tariff train.
But there’s also the lingering issue of Ottawa’s own deficit-laden train system, as well as a fair cut of federal tax dollars, and concern over potential public service job cuts under the next government.
Mayor Mark Sutcliffe recently told columnist Bruce Deachman that he’s “non-partisan,” capable of working with both Liberal Leader Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. That’s prudent, as polls currently show the two big parties in a dead heat as the race begins.
Where are the two leaders running?
Interesting you should ask. Poilievre is the Conservative candidate in Carleton riding, and Carney will run in Nepean. So: two potential prime ministers, both running for seats in the Ottawa area. Furthermore, the two ridings abut each other.
How are the Conservatives placed locally?
Poilievre, who at dissolution represented Carleton, is on an impressive seven-election winning streak, dating back to 2004 when he became an MP at age 25.
He captured 49 per cent of the voting in his riding in the 2021 election. A year later, he won the federal Conservative leadership, replacing Erin O’Toole as Official Opposition leader.
Prime Ministers have an entire country to run, but it’s also standard practice to look after the people — and ridings — who put you in power.
But doesn’t the rest of Ottawa bleed Liberal red?
It certainly looked that way in the 2021 election and Saturday night’s announcement that Carney will run in the Nepean riding adds to the Liberals belief that it could stay that way. The Nepean spot opened up after former Liberal candidate Chandra Arya was disqualified from running by his party.
When the election was called, the MP in Kanata-Carleton (now renamed Kanata) was Liberal Jenna Sudds. Orléans? Liberal Marie-France Lalonde. Ottawa Centre? Liberal Yasir Naqvi. Ottawa South? Liberal David McGuinty. Ottawa-Vanier-Gloucester (as it is now called)? Liberal Mona Fortier. Ottawa West-Nepean? Liberal Anita Vandenbeld.
You get the picture.
Should Carney lead the Liberals back into government, McGuinty would appear to be positioned to continue representing Ottawa’s interests in a smaller cabinet since he was recently appointed minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness.
Evening Update
Sudds, it should be noted, wasn’t among Carney’s ministerial crew. She was minister of Families, Children and Social Development under former prime minister Justin Trudeau.
The red wave also extended across the Ottawa River in 2021. Steven MacKinnon, appointed minister of Jobs and Families by Carney, won handily as a Liberal during the last election, as did Greg Fergus, the House of Commons speaker, in his Hull-Aylmer riding.
The NDP, by the way, held no Ottawa seats at the time of the election call, though it has, occasionally, had representation in the area in the past.
What’s ‘Fairness For Ottawa’ and what does it have to do with the federal government?
It’s a thorny issue. While one level of government can’t tax another, the feds do send something called “Payments in Lieu of Taxes” (PILTs) to municipal governments instead of paying property taxes.
Ottawa has more federally owned facilities than anywhere else in the country. The PILT amount is based on the value of the building multiplied by the relevant tax rate.
The complication comes from who determines the value of those properties. The city has argued that the feds are determining that figure themselves, undervaluing the buildings in order to pay a reduced sum to the city.
What’s the $30-million question?
In August, 2024, Sutcliffe said the PILTs given to the city were $162 million, a drop from $192 million in the previous eight years. Much of the decrease was due to the fact that the feds are selling off properties and many others currently sit vacant, residue from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Facilities being renovated, including the massive 12-year project to re-design Parliament Hill’s Centre Block, also pay less in taxes.
What have the courts decided?
The city has struck out three times in its bid to reclaim the lost PILT revenue, including in February when the Federal Court of Canada ruled the national government did “nothing unreasonable” in making its property evaluations.
The city has decided to challenge that ruling further at the Federal Court of Appeal.
Why does that matter to the citizens of Ottawa?
The shortfall has to be made up somewhere — so far, in the form of increased property taxes for the rest of us.
On that front, Sutcliffe continues to talk about how badly Ottawa has been hurt by the “hollowed out” downtown since the pandemic. Most public servants are working at home for at least two days a week, crushing the downtown economy.
What could a new, incoming government do to address that?
We haven’t heard many promises. Oh, to be a fly on the wall during Sutcliffe’s recent breakfast with Carney the day after the latter’s leadership win. Surely, Carney picked up the tab?
What about the National Capital Commission?
Similar to the fight with the federal government, the city contends it could lose between $30 million and $45 million in lost revenues over the next decade due to the fact the NCC pays less than the going market rate in determining the PILTs it pays to the city. Chief among the sites involved is LeBreton Flats, the potential home for a new arena to house the Ottawa Senators. Based on market rates, the city has argued that it could have netted $1.8 million from the NCC for LeBreton Flats between 2018-22.
The NCC argues that much of its land is in environmentally protected areas, designated as parkland or for the purpose of “active use pathways” so its payments are fair.
In January, the CBC reported that the NCC paid a total of $4.85 million in PILTs to Ottawa in 2024.
While the NCC receives its funding from the federal government, it is an independent body. The city faces a tough fight in trying to push the next government — whether Liberal or Conservative — to force the NCC into changing.
Could Ottawa take the NCC to court?
Yes, but the city is wary of what happened in the court fight between Chelsea, Que. and the NCC.
Chelsea spent seven years and $300,000 on court challenges to get more cash from the NCC for its work maintaining roads, parking and traffic in Gatineau Park. Chelsea said the NCC had shortchanged it $1.8 million from 2018 to 2020. The courts, including the Supreme Court, have sided with the NCC.
OK, so what’s the deal with federal funding for the LRT?
When it comes to Ottawa’s problem-plagued OC Transpo, Sutcliffe and city council can only hope the federal election is as beneficial as February’s Ontario election appears to have been.
During a provincial campaign stop in Ottawa, Ontario Premier Doug Ford pledged to “upload” OC Transpo’s colossal LRT financial burden onto Metrolinx, the provincial Crown corporation that also bankrolls transit systems in Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton and Hamilton. Sutcliffe said the decision would save the city “hundreds of millions, perhaps billions” of dollars long-term. Before Ford’s announcement, the city was staring at a $40 million annual shortfall.
City council has also been asking for federal government support for its transit system. Before the election was called, Justin Trudeau’s government pledged $180 million in aid over the next decade, but there were limited details on exactly when and how that cash might be spent.
Would a Carney-led government also jump on that spending train? What about one led by Poilievre? Unknown at the moment.
How many public service positions are at risk under a new government?
Before Carney took over as Liberal leader, job cuts had already been announced for Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. It was part of a plan to eliminate 3,300 positions there over the next three years.
The entire federal work force grew to 367,000 from 257,000 when Trudeau was first elected in 2015. While the Liberals have argued that much of the expansion was related to pandemic issues, there’s no longer a mood for more growth.
Carney has issued some hints about streamlining, including using artificial intelligence to make the public service more efficient, while also finding a way to chop expenses.
As for Poilievre and the Conservatives, they’ve also criticized what they perceive as a bloated bureaucracy that has driven up the country’s deficit. The Conservatives argue they can chop 17,000 jobs a year, based on attrition alone.
There is, however, a potential “Trump” card in the talk about job losses.
The uncertainty about tariffs and Donald Trump’s annexation threats might give the incoming government pause before it pushes the eject button on thousands of employees.
Saving Canada is the number one election issue and it’s possible the size of the public service will be tied to what the fedearl government needs as it battles tariffs. Job cuts could be pushed to the background until the heat of the trade war cools down.
